EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair rebounded modestly to trade near 1.0540 during Friday's European session, halting a prolonged losing streak. This recovery reflects a temporary shift in sentiment as traders reassess the broader macroeconomic landscape.
- USD Strength: The US Dollar’s resilience remains supported by the so-called "Trump trade," with market participants optimistic about the potential economic stimulus and pro-growth policies expected under President-elect Donald Trump.
- Eurozone GDP: Quarterly GDP growth for the Eurozone was reported at 0.4% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, in line with market forecasts. While consistent with expectations, this moderate growth underscores the region's ongoing economic fragility.
- Powell’s Statement: Jerome Powell refrained from offering explicit guidance for December’s policy direction, citing continued economic uncertainties. His cautious stance suggests a measured approach to monetary policy amid mixed signals in recent economic data.
- US Retail Sales: Markets are keenly watching US Retail Sales data for October, expected to show a slight moderation from 0.4% to 0.3%. This release could influence USD dynamics and, by extension, EUR/USD performance heading into the weekend.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, with the USD drawing strength from market optimism around Trump's policy agenda. While Eurozone data met expectations, limited growth offers little support for the Euro, leaving the pair vulnerable to upcoming US economic data releases.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD remains above 1.2650 in European trading, attempting a recovery. However, the pair retains a bearish technical outlook, trading below the 200- period SMA, signalling persistent downside pressure.
- UK GDP: The UK economy expanded by 0.1% QoQ in Q3 2024, down from 0.5% in the previous quarter and below market expectations of 0.2%. This slowdown highlights increasing economic challenges.
- Weak UK Data: Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production contracted by 0.5% and 1.0% MoM in September, respectively. Both metrics missed forecasts, reflecting persistent weakness in the UK’s industrial sector.
- US PPI Data: US PPI data aligned with expectations, with a slight rise in annualized core PPI numbers. This reinforces the notion of sticky inflationary pressures, adding to the Greenback’s appeal.
- Fed Barkin Highlights Uncertainties: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin cautioned that risks like elevated union wage settlements and possible tariff hikes could make policymakers hesitant to declare victory over inflation, suggesting a more measured approach from the Fed.
| SMA (20) | Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure due to disappointing UK economic data and persistent USD strength. The pair's bearish technical setup and weak fundamentals suggest limited recovery potential in the near term, with traders closely watching further US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary.
GOLD
- Gold Price: The gold price is attempting to extend its previous rebound early Friday but faces headwinds from persistent US Dollar (USD) buying, limiting upward momentum.
- Mixed Chinese Data: Retail Sales increased by 4.8% in October, reflecting strong consumer activity. Industrial Production disappointed markets with 5.3% growth, missing expectations. Fixed Asset Investment remained unchanged at 3.4% YoY through October, indicating subdued business investment.
- Powell’s Signals: On Thursday, Jerome Powell stated that the US economy’s growth, a robust job market, and inflation above the 2% target reduce the urgency for immediate rate cuts. This hawkish stance limits the appeal of non-yielding gold.
- US PPI: Annual headline PPI rose to 2.4%, up from 1.9% in September. These figures suggest inflationary pressures remain elevated, tempering disinflationary momentum and supporting the USD.
- Upcoming US Data: Traders await key US economic reports, including Retail Sales data, for fresh guidance. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers will provide further insights into the central bank's policy trajectory beyond December.
Closing statement: Gold remains under pressure due to mixed Chinese economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance. Persistent USD strength, coupled with elevated inflation concerns, continues to challenge XAU/USD’s recovery potential. Traders will closely monitor US Retail Sales and Fed commentary for near-term direction.
CRUDE OIL
- WTI Price: The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude oil inventory increase of 2.089 million barrels for the week ending November 8. This unexpected build-up reflects weaker-than-anticipated demand and exerts downward pressure on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices.
- US Dollar Strength: The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 106.90 after hitting a fresh year-to-date high at 107.05, supported by stronger-than-expected economic data. The firm USD makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand.
- Mixed US Economic Data: October's Producer Price Index came in slightly above expectations, reinforcing inflation concerns. The Consumer Price Index data released earlier in the week was in line with expectations, tempering the outlook for aggressive Federal Reserve easing.
- OPEC Report: OPEC’s recent downward revision of demand growth highlights a challenging macroeconomic environment for crude oil.
- IEA Report: The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted an expected boost in non- OPEC production, driven by new offshore projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Norway, contributing to an oversupplied market and capping potential price recovery.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |
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| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: Crude oil markets face headwinds from rising US inventories, a stronger USD, and a bearish demand outlook from OPEC. Additional non-OPEC supply further complicates the supply-demand balance. Traders will watch for updates on production trends and global economic indicators for near-term direction. WTI prices are likely to remain under pressure until signs of demand recovery emerge.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX surged by 1.37% on Thursday, reversing the previous session's marginal loss of 0.16%, closing comfortably above the 19,000 threshold. Investors shifted focus from US tariff concerns to favorable corporate earnings and economic data.
- Earning Reports: Siemens AG rallied 4.91%, and Deutsche Telekom AG gained 3.30%, as both companies exceeded market expectations in their earnings results. Positive sentiment around these reports contributed significantly to the index’s overall performance.
- Eurozone Economy: Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.4% QoQ in Q3 2024, doubling the pace of Q2 2024 growth (0.2%), signaling resilience in the bloc’s economy. Employment growth held steady, alleviating some concerns about the region's labor market stability.
- Germany’s Wholesale Sector: German wholesale prices in October were 0.8% lower YoY, marking a continued deflationary trend after -1.6% in September and -1.1% in August. This underscores ongoing challenges in price stability within Europe’s largest economy.
- ECB Outlook: ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted mixed signals in the Eurozone. While inflation shows signs of easing, economic growth remains subdued. The ECB remains committed to ensuring inflation converges toward its 2% target, hinting at a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments.
| SMA (20) | Rising |
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| RSI (14) | Neutral | ||
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling |
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Closing statement: The DAX benefited from robust corporate earnings and improved Eurozone GDP data, countering deflationary signals from Germany's wholesale sector. Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, supported by indications of inflation moderation and steady employment growth. Looking ahead, market participants will monitor ECB policy shifts and global trade developments for further direction.