EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD trades steady near 1.1750 in Wednesday’s European session, consolidating after modest gains earlier in the week.
- Eurozone Inflation: Markets await the September HICP report, expected at 2.2% y/y vs. 2.0% prior. Country-level data are mixed, with France and Spain softer, while Germany and Italy surprised to the upside, signaling divergent price dynamics.
- Political Risk: Talks between Republicans and Democrats failed to secure a stopgap funding bill, keeping the risk of a government shutdown alive beyond October, weighing on USD sentiment.
- US Labor Market: August JOLTs job openings came in at 7.23M, close to expectations. With both hiring and layoffs slowing, the labor market remains broadly stable, maintaining a key focus for the Fed.
- US Data: Traders eye ADP private payrolls (Sept) and the ISM manufacturing index, both seen as important precursors to Friday’s NFP report, which will guide the Fed’s policy outlook.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1750 as Eurozone inflation and US shutdown risks dominate sentiment. Upcoming US jobs data and ISM releases could provide near-term volatility and direction.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD extends its winning streak to a 4th straight day, trading near 1.3460 in Wednesday’s European session, driven largely by USD softness.
- Fiscal Concerns: Despite gains, the Pound underperforms relative to peers, with markets cautious ahead of the UK Autumn Budget in November, where fiscal sustainability remains a key risk factor.
- UK Growth: The UK economy slowed in Q2 2025 to 0.3% QoQ (vs. 0.7% in Q1), according to ONS data, underlining the challenges facing Chancellor Rachel Reeves in balancing growth and fiscal discipline.
- BoE Stance: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated expectations for further rate cuts, reinforcing a dovish policy outlook even as inflation pressures linger.
- Housing Market: UK Nationwide house prices rose +0.5% MoM in September, beating forecasts of +0.2%. The average home price climbed to £271,995, showing resilience despite macro headwinds.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling |  |
Closing statement: GBP/USD benefits from broad USD weakness but remains vulnerable to UK-specific risks, including slowing growth and fiscal concerns. BoE’s dovish stance and upcoming Autumn Budget will be pivotal in shaping Sterling’s trajectory.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold retreats from intraday highs, slipping to around $3,855/oz in Wednesday’s European session after failing to sustain momentum near record levels.
- China’s Gold: Beijing is actively promoting yuan and gold as USD alternatives, reportedly encouraging trade partners to hold surpluses in Shanghai gold reserves. If implemented widely, this could demand 15–20% of annual global output, offering a powerful structural tailwind for bullion.
- Investor Inflows: Gold continues to attract heavy institutional and retail inflows, with miners benefiting sharply. UK-listed Fresnillo shares have surged over 300% YTD, far outpacing major tech names, reflecting investor conviction.
- IPO Momentum: Zijin Gold International’s blockbuster Hong Kong IPO gained 68% on debut, valuing the firm at ~US$40 billion, underscoring gold’s rising profile as a growth sector rivaling tech valuations.
- US Politics: US shutdown risks add uncertainty, with Trump warning of “irreversible” program cuts during a closure, potentially increasing safe-haven demand for gold.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold remains firmly supported by China’s de-dollarization push, robust investor flows, and geopolitical uncertainty, even amid profit-taking near record highs. The long-term bias stays bullish, with dips likely viewed as buying opportunities.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude finds support at $62.30/bbl in Wednesday’s European session after a sharp 4.4% slide over the past two days.
- OPEC+ Supply: Bloomberg reports the cartel may accelerate rollback of production cuts, planning a 500K bpd supply hike in November — nearly 4x faster than the October increase of 137K bpd, pressuring prices.
- Geopolitical Risks: Russia is assessing potential US Tomahawk missile supplies to Ukraine, warning of steep escalation if confirmed. This underscores ongoing geopolitical risks that could offset bearish supply-side dynamics.
- Middle East: Trump claims the US is close to brokering peace in Gaza with a 20-point plan, while warning Hamas of full US backing for Israel if the proposal is rejected — keeping regional uncertainty elevated.
- Inventory Data: Traders await EIA weekly stockpile figures, which will provide fresh direction for near-term price action and test demand resilience amid rising supply risks.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure from looming OPEC+ supply increases, though geopolitical flashpoints in Ukraine and the Middle East could offer price support. Near-term focus turns to US inventory data to gauge demand strength.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX trades 0.2% lower at 23,850 points on Wednesday, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
- US Shutdown: The US government has partially shut down after failure to reach a transitional budget deal. Markets are reacting calmly, with no major spillover into European equities so far.
- Trade & Tariffs: Trump signed a proclamation on timber and lumber imports, adding to last week’s sweeping tariffs — including 100% on branded pharmaceuticals and 25% on heavy trucks from October 1. These measures reinforce global trade uncertainty.
- German Data: German retail sales rose 1.8% YoY in August, following a 2.9% gain in July, signaling steady household demand despite macro headwinds.
- US Data: US consumer confidence plunged in September to its lowest since April, while job openings remained steady but hiring slowed — pointing to cracks in the labor market and adding weight to recessionary concerns.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX is under modest pressure, balancing solid German retail activity against US political gridlock, tariffs, and weakening consumer sentiment. Broader momentum may hinge on developments in Washington and incoming US economic data.