EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair is recovering during Friday's Asian session after pulling back from the 1.1470–1.1475 area, its highest level in nearly two weeks.
- US labor market: Initial Jobless Claims came in at 215,000, slightly better than the expected 220,000, suggesting layoffs remain relatively contained.
- Nonfarm Payrolls: US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, well below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a notable slowdown in hiring. Although the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the accompanying 0.3 percentage point decline in the labor force participation rate suggests the improvement was driven by fewer people actively seeking work, making the report less constructive for the US Dollar.
- EU trade: Brazil introduced new regulations governing meat exports to the European Union, reflecting ongoing adjustments in trade standards between the two economies.
- China business: According to the head of the EU Chamber, European companies are becoming more, rather than less, reliant on China despite ongoing diversification efforts.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: UR/USD is drawing support from disappointing US employment data, which has softened expectations for the US Dollar despite resilient jobless claims. Going forward, the pair's direction will largely depend on whether upcoming US data continue to point to a cooling labor market and how investors reassess the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in response.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is trading in positive territory around 1.3360 during Friday's European session.
- Fed's Daly: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that US monetary policy remains slightly restrictive, indicating that the Federal Reserve is maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. She also highlighted the potential for artificial intelligence to significantly boost productivity over time, although policymakers are still assessing whether these gains could ultimately prove inflationary.
- Strait of Hormuz: Iran's Unified Command of Armed Forces warned that it would respond to any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz and insisted that all vessels use maritime routes designated by Tehran.
- UK households: Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that real household disposable income fell by 0.8% in the first quarter of the year.
- Political developments: Markets continue to monitor the UK's political transition following Keir Starmer's resignation. While likely successor Andy Burnham's commitment to fiscal discipline has reassured investors in the near term, analysts note that future government budgets will be closely scrutinized for any signs of looser fiscal policy that could affect investor confidence and the Pound.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is supported by broad US Dollar weakness following softer US employment data, but gains remain tempered by concerns over the UK's economic outlook and political uncertainty. The pair's near-term direction will depend on how investors balance evolving Federal Reserve expectations against developments in UK fiscal policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold continues to build on this week's rebound from its lowest level since November 2025, posting gains for a third straight day.
- Middle East: According to The New York Times, US officials were concerned that Israel may have considered targeting Iran's senior negotiators during indirect peace talks.
- Fed rate: Following weaker-than-expected US labor market data, market expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate hike have moderated.
- Technology restrictions: Reports indicate that Anthropic is tightening controls to prevent Chinese firms from accessing its advanced AI models through potential loopholes, with companies linked to ByteDance, Ant Financial, and Microsoft Azure reportedly mentioned.
- Fed pressure: President Donald Trump stated that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces resistance from members of the Federal Reserve Board and confirmed that he will begin formal procedures to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: Gold is drawing support from renewed geopolitical uncertainty and softer US employment data, helping extend its recent recovery. However, persistent inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve could still tighten policy further are likely to limit sustained upside, leaving XAU/USD sensitive to both geopolitical headlines and upcoming US inflation data.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has reversed an early rally toward $68.70 and is trading lower on Friday after briefly recovering from its lowest level since late February.
- Kuwaiti oil: Reports indicate that Kuwait produced an average of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, with output reportedly reaching as high as 1.9 million bpd over the past ten days.
- OPEC+ production: OPEC+ is widely expected to approve another increase in production quotas for August, reflecting improving operating conditions after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- UAE exports: According to Reuters, the United Arab Emirates exported a record 3.7 million barrels per day in June, while Vortexa estimates exports may have reached as much as 4 million bpd.
- US production: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has launched a new 30-day public consultation on leasing approximately 36,000 acres of federal land in California for oil and gas development.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure as recovering Gulf production, record UAE exports, and expectations of another OPEC+ output increase continue to strengthen the global supply outlook. Unless demand improves significantly or geopolitical tensions lead to renewed supply disruptions, the near-term bias for crude oil remains skewed to the downside.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading higher around the 25,600-point mark on Friday after breaking out to new all-time highs.
- Rheinmetall news: Defense company Rheinmetall warned that the cancellation of the F126 frigate program could reduce this year's revenue by as much as €300 million. However, the company also reported that second-quarter revenue growth is expected to exceed 60%, indicating that strong demand across its broader defense business is more than offsetting the setback and helping maintain investor confidence.
- Siemens Energy: The Canadian bank RBC raised its price target for Siemens Energy from €200 to €210 while reaffirming its "Outperform" rating.
- Fed's Daly: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the US continues to experience exceptionally strong investment growth and sees little evidence that economic resilience is fading.
- Automotive sentiment: The Ifo Institute's business climate indicator for Germany's automotive industry slipped to -21.4 in June from -20.7 in May.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: The DAX continues to outperform, reaching new record highs as strong corporate developments and positive analyst sentiment outweigh isolated sector weaknesses. While softer confidence in the automotive industry warrants monitoring, robust earnings momentum in defense and industrial companies continues to provide a solid foundation for the index's bullish trend.