Daily Analysis 06/07/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3340, retreating from last week's high of 1.3387. Despite the modest pullback, the pair continues to hold its near-term upward trend.
• UK services: The final UK Services PMI for June was revised slightly higher to 48.8 from the preliminary 48.7, but it remains below the 50-point expansion threshold. Business activity contracted at the fastest pace in nearly three and a half years, while new orders declined for a fourth consecutive month, highlighting persistent weakness in the UK's largest economic sector.
• BoE's Bailey: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that, without the impact of the Iran conflict on energy prices, UK inflation would already be close to the Bank's 2% target.
• Geopolitical news: The Kremlin confirmed that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held an 85-minute phone conversation over the weekend, during which Trump reportedly offered to help facilitate a settlement in Ukraine ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey.
• Upcoming events: Investor attention now turns to the US ISM Services PMI and remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported by its broader bullish trend, but weak UK services activity highlights ongoing domestic economic challenges. The pair's next move will likely be driven by US economic releases and Federal Reserve communication, which will shape expectations for future US interest rate policy and overall Dollar strength.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is struggling to extend its recent gains after reaching its highest level in two weeks, trading just below the $4,150 area.
• Central banks: A World Gold Council survey showed that central banks are increasingly viewing Gold as a strategic hedge against financial crises, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. Nearly 90% of respondents expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next year, highlighting strong structural demand that remains supportive for gold over the longer term.
• China news: Reports from the Australian press indicate that China is preparing to conduct a test launch of a nuclear-capable long-range missile with a dummy warhead in the South Pacific.
• US labor data: Markets have scaled back expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes following weaker-than-expected US employment data released last Thursday.
• FOMC Minutes: Investor attention is now turning to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the June policy meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Closing statement: Gold remains supported by strong central bank demand, elevated geopolitical risks, and softer expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. However, with investors awaiting the FOMC Minutes for clearer policy guidance, XAU/USD is likely to remain sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations and broader risk sentiment.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $68.30 after failing to sustain an intraday rebound on Monday.
• OPEC+ production: OPEC+ has agreed to increase its production target by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly output increase.
• Strait of Hormuz: Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has improved since the interim agreement between the United States and Iran was reached in mid-June. Daily vessel traffic has stabilized at roughly 40 ships per day.
• France news: French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle will return to its home port following improving security conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Russia's fuel: Despite being one of the world's largest oil producers, Russia is reportedly preparing to import at least 200,000 barrels of jet fuel from Japan through intermediary trading routes. The unusual move highlights the growing impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's refining infrastructure.

Closing statement: WTI continues to face bearish pressure as rising OPEC+ production and improving shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz strengthen the global supply outlook. While Russia's refining problems and lingering geopolitical uncertainties provide some support, the market remains primarily focused on abundant supply, suggesting that crude prices may struggle to stage a sustained recovery in the near term.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading higher around the 25,850-point mark on Monday after breaking out to new all-time highs.
• Industrial orders: Germany's industrial orders increased by 1.9% month-over-month in May, outperforming the market expectation of 1.5%. The rebound follows weaker April data that had been distorted by fading stockpiling and front-loaded orders during the early stages of the US-Iran conflict.
• Services sector: The final HCOB Services PMI for June was revised sharply higher to 48.6 from the preliminary 46.8. Although the services sector remains in contraction for a third consecutive month, the improved reading and significantly easing cost pressures indicate that business conditions are stabilizing.
• Germany-China: Germany's Foreign Ministry has summoned the Chinese Ambassador for urgent discussions regarding China's reported cooperation with Russia.
• NATO Summit: The White House confirmed that President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the upcoming NATO Summit in Turkey.

Closing statement: The DAX continues to benefit from improving German economic data and strong investor confidence, driving the index to new record highs. While geopolitical risks involving China and broader international developments remain factors to watch, resilient industrial activity and easing inflation pressures continue to provide a supportive backdrop for German equities.