Daily Analysis 06/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading near 1.3460 during Thursday's European session, giving back some recent gains.
• UK plans: The UK government is reportedly preparing an additional £9 billion package for housing, infrastructure, and business support by taking advantage of fiscal rules that classify such spending as investment.
• Services sector: The ISM Services PMI edged up to 54.1 in July from 54.0, indicating that the US services sector continues to expand despite falling slightly short of market expectations.
• Fed's Daly: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged in July, stressing that policymakers need more evidence to determine whether inflation pressures are temporary or persistent.
• Upcoming data: Investors are looking ahead to the US Challenger job cuts report, second-quarter productivity figures, and weekly jobless claims for further insight into the health of the US economy.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is trading cautiously as supportive UK fiscal plans are offset by resilient US economic data, with upcoming US labor market releases likely to determine the pair's next directional move.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is advancing for a fourth consecutive session after surging more than 4% in the previous trading day. The precious metal has climbed to its highest level since June 18, reflecting strong safe-haven demand and sustained bullish momentum.
• Hormuz shipping: Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a framework for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Fed's Cook: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook indicated that holding interest rates steady may become more difficult unless there is clear evidence that inflation is easing.
• Gold production: China's gold production declined 9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while gold consumption increased by 1.2%. Lower mine output combined with resilient demand may provide fundamental support for gold prices over the medium term.
• Next focus: Investors are awaiting the latest US Initial Jobless Claims data and additional comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on the outlook for interest rates.

Closing statement: Gold remains strongly supported by safe-haven demand and favorable supply-demand dynamics, although upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve commentary could determine whether the rally extends or encounters profit-taking.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading higher near $75.50 during Thursday's European session, recovering from recent weakness.
• Strait of Hormuz: Comments from Iran's Foreign Ministry suggest that Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a framework for commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Houthi attacks: Iran-backed Houthi forces claimed responsibility for missile attacks targeting a Saudi oil tanker near Yanbu and another vessel in the Gulf of Aden.
• Shipping disruptions: Reports of a Chinese tanker rerouting through the Suez region after offloading Saudi crude underline the logistical challenges facing global oil transport. With Saudi Aramco indicating that exports to Asia now take 20–25 days longer via the Suez Canal, transportation costs and delivery times remain elevated.
• US-Iran talks: President Donald Trump described recent discussions with Iran as productive, while Vice President JD Vance cautioned that negotiations would likely be lengthy and difficult.

Closing statement: WTI is finding support from persistent geopolitical risks and ongoing shipping disruptions, although any concrete progress toward a US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could limit further upside in crude prices.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading lower around 26,170 points after setting fresh all-time highs in the previous session.
• Factory orders: German factory orders increased by 3.1% in June, significantly exceeding expectations of a 0.3% rise, supported by another surge in large-scale orders.
• PMI data: Germany's final Services PMI was revised slightly higher to 49.8 but remained below the 50 threshold, marking a fourth consecutive month of contraction in the services sector. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI improved to 51.3, indicating that overall business activity continues to expand despite weakness in services.
• Producer prices: Eurozone producer prices matched market expectations, falling 0.3% month-on-month while increasing 4.6% year-on-year.
• US-China trade: Trade tensions between the US and China intensified as US officials discussed potential tariffs on polysilicon, while China announced tighter export controls on drones destined for the US.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains supported by strong German industrial data, but renewed US-China trade tensions and mixed economic indicators may encourage short-term caution after the index's recent record-breaking rally.