Daily Analysis 06/10/2025

• GBP/USD Price: The Pound Sterling’s recovery from seven-week lows stalled, with GBP/USD slipping back below 1.3500 after repeated failures to sustain gains.
• Technical Setup: The pair surrendered the 50-day SMA at 1.3462, confirming resistance around 1.3500 and highlighting weak bullish momentum.
• US Data: The government shutdown has delayed key US statistics, creating uncertainty over the timing and scope of further Fed rate cuts, weakening overall USD sentiment.
• Fed Commentary: Hawkish remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who warned against premature cuts due to elevated inflation, gave the USD temporary support.
• Key Events: Traders now focus on Fed speakers for policy hints, while the release of the FOMC September Minutes on Wednesday will be pivotal for forward guidance.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure below 1.3500, with weak technical footing and conflicting Fed signals shaping sentiment. The pair’s short-term path hinges on Fed commentary and the FOMC Minutes.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold extended its record-setting rally, briefly topping $3,940 before consolidating around $3,925 early Monday, reflecting sustained safe-haven demand.
• Political Risk: The prolonged US government shutdown risks escalating into mass federal layoffs, which could fuel economic uncertainty and further support gold prices.
• Japan Policy: The election of Sanae Takaichi as LDP leader reduces the likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike this month, keeping global monetary conditions supportive for gold.
• Geopolitical Escalation: Russia’s latest large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukraine intensified geopolitical tensions, reinforcing gold’s safe-haven appeal.
• Middle East: US President Trump pressed for quick progress on the Israel–Hamas peace plan, warning of "massive bloodshed" if talks stall—another factor underpinning gold’s risk-hedge demand.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains firmly supported above $3,900, with record highs driven by political gridlock, dovish central bank signals, and rising geopolitical risks. Momentum favors further upside unless profit-taking emerges.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude rose to $61.30 per barrel early Monday, extending its rebound in the European session amid a cautiously supportive supply outlook.
• OPEC+ Decision: OPEC+ confirmed a 137,000 bpd output hike for November, mirroring October’s increase. The modest adjustment reflects ongoing caution about oversupply risks.
• Producer Tensions: Reports of Russia–Saudi tensions highlighted differing strategies: Moscow preferred a restrained approach to shield prices, while Riyadh pushed for a larger increase. The compromise signals a priority on stability.
• Sanctions Impact: Russia continues to face falling oil output as sanctions restrict access to Western technology, undermining its ability to sustain production levels.
• Corporate Developments: QatarEnergy agreed to acquire a 27% stake in Egypt’s North Cleopatra block from Shell, which will retain 36%. The deal awaits Egyptian government approval, pointing to shifting dynamics in global oil investment.

Closing statement: Crude oil remains supported above $61 as OPEC+ maintains a cautious supply stance. However, sanctions-driven declines in Russian output and shifting Middle East energy alliances may shape price volatility ahead.

• DAX Price: The DAX trades at 24,380 points, showing little change from Friday’s holiday-muted session, with overall movement minimal to start the week.
• Economic Outlook: Germany’s Economic Minister Katherina Reiche revised the 2024 GDP outlook to +0.2% growth, up from the stagnation previously forecasted by ex-Minister Robert Habeck, signaling a cautiously improved outlook.
• Market Drivers: Analyst Andreas Lipkow noted that expectations of further U.S. rate cuts are boosting sentiment, with AI-related stocks emerging as strong beneficiaries of the renewed momentum.
• Corporate Calendar: The week’s corporate news flow remains light, with Aurubis’ capital markets day on Wednesday, followed by Gerresheimer’s Q3 report and Volkswagen’s delivery data later in the week.
• Data Environment: With U.S. government shutdown delays, the lack of U.S. economic releases reduces potential catalysts, leaving markets uncertain about when missed reports will be published.

Closing statement: The DAX holds steady near 24,380 amid thin trading and limited fresh catalysts. U.S. rate cut expectations and AI sector strength may support momentum, but a quiet corporate and data calendar keeps movements subdued.