Daily Analysis 07/07/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3390 during Tuesday's European session, marking its ninth consecutive day of gains.
• Housing market: The Lloyds House Price Index rose 0.2% month-over-month in June, reversing May's 0.1% decline and exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, house price growth accelerated to 0.6% from 0.5%, suggesting that the UK housing market remains resilient despite elevated interest rates.
• Fed stance: During the June press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that policymakers agreed traditional forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy environment.
• Services sector: The final US S&P Global Services PMI was confirmed at 51.2 in June, only slightly below the preliminary estimate of 51.3. The reading marks the third consecutive month of expansion, indicating that the US services sector continues to provide support for overall economic activity despite tighter monetary conditions.
• Uk's Burnham: UK's likely next Prime Minister Andy Burnham dismissed proposals to split the Treasury into separate finance and economics ministries, according to the Financial Times. The decision signals policy continuity and may help reassure investors by reducing uncertainty surrounding the government's fiscal and economic management framework.

Closing statement: GBP/USD continues to benefit from improving UK economic indicators and steady investor confidence in the UK's policy outlook. While resilient US economic data supports the Dollar, expectations that both the Fed and the Bank of England will remain data dependent leave the pair primarily driven by relative economic performance and upcoming macroeconomic releases.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold continues to trade with a bearish bias during Tuesday's European session, although it is holding above the $4,100 psychological level.
• Gold market: Hong Kong's Chief Executive confirmed the launch of a central clearing system for gold in partnership with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
• Chinese outlook: The World Bank now expects China's economic growth to slow further to 4.3% in 2027, citing the country's gradual transition toward a consumption-driven economy.
• Services sector: The ISM Services PMI for June matched expectations at 54.0, indicating continued expansion in the US services sector. However, the New Orders Index eased to 55.1 from 56.8, suggesting that while business activity remains healthy, the pace of demand growth has moderated.
• Fed's Waller: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated that forward guidance can be problematic and argued that policymakers are better off avoiding it altogether.

Closing statement: Gold remains under modest pressure as resilient US economic data and expectations of higher interest rates continue to support the US Dollar. While structural developments in Asian gold markets are constructive over the longer term, near-term price direction is likely to remain driven by Federal Reserve policy expectations and upcoming US macroeconomic data.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $69.30 per barrel during Tuesday's European session, recovering after modest losses in the previous session.
• Strait of Hormuz: According to reports, Iran fired at least two missiles at vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, with a Qatari LNG tanker reportedly among the ships struck.
• Tanker traffic: Despite the latest security concerns, data show that two Japanese-owned supertankers carrying Saudi crude are continuing their voyage toward the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ukrainian strike: Several Ukrainian drones reportedly managed to reach Omsk (~2500km from frontline) for the 1st time and hit Omsk Oil Refinery, widely described as Russia’s largest refinery and one of the last top Russian refineries not yet heavily hit by Ukraine’s campaign.
• China testing: The US State Department confirmed that China launched a nuclear-capable ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean while again urging Beijing to engage in arms control discussions.

Closing statement: WTI has recovered as renewed security risks in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure revive concerns over global supply stability. However, with oil shipments through the Gulf continuing and no widespread supply disruption yet evident, geopolitical developments are likely to remain the primary driver of crude prices in the near term.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around the 25,750-point mark, remaining close to its recently established all-time highs.
• Industrial production: Germany's Industrial Production rose 0.9% month-over-month in May, significantly outperforming the market forecast of 0.2% and accelerating from April's 0.4% increase.
• ECB's Panetta: ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta acknowledged that the Eurozone continues to face simultaneous upside inflation risks and downside risks to economic growth. His remarks underscore the difficult policy environment facing the ECB, reinforcing expectations that future interest-rate decisions will remain highly dependent on incoming economic and inflation data.
• Siemens Healthineers: UBS lowered its price target for Siemens Healthineers to €38 from €51 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating.
• Public spending: Germany plans to borrow more than €800 billion by 2030, marking a historic shift away from decades of fiscal restraint. The additional borrowing is intended primarily to finance a substantial increase in defence spending, with expenditure expected to reach levels not seen since the Cold War.

Closing statement: The DAX remains well supported by stronger-than-expected domestic economic data and optimism surrounding Germany's increased fiscal spending plans. While ECB policymakers continue to emphasize the delicate balance between inflation and growth, improving industrial activity and significant government investment provide a constructive backdrop for German equities, even as monetary policy uncertainty persists.