Daily Analysis 07/08/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading defensively around 1.3450 during Friday's European session as the US Dollar maintains broad strength.
• Fed rate: Reports indicate that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh could support an interest rate hike as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated.
• US layoffs: The July Challenger report showed 33,429 announced layoffs, the lowest level since July 2024, although AI-related layoffs continued to account for an increasing share of job cuts. The low overall level of announced layoffs points to continued resilience in the US labor market despite structural changes caused by artificial intelligence.
• Jobless claims: Initial US unemployment claims rose slightly to 199,000 but remained below 200,000 for a third consecutive week. The persistently low level of claims suggests that labor market conditions remain relatively strong, supporting the US Dollar and reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy quickly.
• Fed's Cook: Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she is prepared to raise interest rates if the disinflation process does not resume soon.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains under pressure as resilient US labor market conditions and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations strengthen the US Dollar, leaving the pair vulnerable to further downside in the near term.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is trading below the $4,250 level during Friday's Asian session, stabilizing after retreating from its highest level since June 18.
• Fed's Musalem: Federal Reserve official Alberto Musalem argued that meaningful restraint on underlying inflation is crucial and indicated that he favored a rate hike at the latest FOMC meeting.
• Fed's Daly: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the central bank should be prepared to act if inflation becomes unmanageable.
• Chinese data: China's exports grew 23.9% year-on-year in July, exceeding expectations of 22.7%, although the pace slowed from 27.0% previously. Strong external demand remains a positive factor for the Chinese economy and could support commodity demand, while weaker domestic indicators highlight continued imbalances in the recovery.
• US-China trade: The White House confirmed a 15% tariff on polysilicon effective December 2026, alongside minimum import pricing for solar components and wafers. Chinese polysilicon producers responded by pledging to stop below-cost sales, and renewed trade tensions could increase economic uncertainty and provide some safe-haven support for gold.

Closing statement: Gold is consolidating after its recent rally, with hawkish Fed commentary creating near-term pressure while US-China trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty provide underlying safe-haven support.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude oil is trading lower near $78.10 during Friday's early European session.
• Iran restricitons: Iranian media reported that Tehran is considering banning US and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Such restrictions would represent a significant escalation and could threaten one of the world's most important oil transportation routes, potentially creating substantial upside risks for crude prices.
• Transit fees: Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to an agreement to jointly manage the Strait, potentially introducing a 5%-7% cargo-value transit fee while exempting Chinese vessels.
• Strait of Hormuz: A US official reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and that no single party controls its shipping lanes. Washington's position that temporary routes will remain unobstructed directly contrasts with reports of potential Iranian restrictions, highlighting the risk of further confrontation.
• Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia is reportedly preparing to intensify military attacks against the Houthis following attacks on Najran and Yemeni government forces.

Closing statement: WTI is under modest short-term pressure, but escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for increased Saudi-Houthi conflict keep significant upside supply risks in place.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading around 26,260 points on Friday, maintaining positive momentum despite moving away from its recent record highs.
• Industrial production: German industrial production increased 0.2% in June, slowing from May's 0.7% growth but exceeding the market forecast of 0.1%.
• Trade surplus: Germany's trade surplus declined to €15.4 billion in June from a revised €19.4 billion in May, falling below the €17.4 billion expected by the market.
• Factory orders: German factory orders rose 3.1% month-on-month in June, significantly exceeding the 0.5% forecast, while annual growth reached 6.5%.
• Daimler truck: Daimler Truck plans to strengthen its position in the US market by building a new production facility there, allowing the company to better navigate changes in US tariff policy.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains supported by strong factory orders and resilient industrial production, although the narrowing trade surplus and ongoing tariff uncertainty could limit further gains as the index consolidates near record levels.