Daily Analysis 09/07/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair continues Wednesday's upward momentum, trading above the 1.3400 level during Thursday's European session.
• Fed minutes: The June FOMC meeting minutes showed broad agreement among policymakers that official communication should continue to emphasize the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and its commitment to maintaining price stability.
• Trade tensions: Reports indicate that a US Senate committee will vote next week on legislation designed to strengthen restrictions preventing Chinese automakers from entering the US market.
• UK power grid: The UK has issued a rare summer electricity supply warning as exceptionally hot weather increases demand and puts additional strain on the national power grid.
• IMF outlook: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now expects the UK economy to expand by 1.0% this year, representing a slight improvement from its previous forecast.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported as investors respond to a slightly improved UK economic outlook and resilient Sterling demand. However, expectations of a restrictive Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical and trade tensions, and UK energy challenges are likely to keep volatility elevated in the sessions ahead.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is trading with a positive bias during Thursday's European session, recovering after a three-day decline that pushed prices below $4,100.
• Fed minutes: The June FOMC meeting minutes highlighted a growing divergence of opinion among policymakers during Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.
• Fed hike: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders have raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the next meeting to above 30%, compared with less than 20% a week earlier.
• Nvidia gains: Reports indicate that Nvidia has received approval to supply H200 AI chips to leading Chinese technology companies, although their use will reportedly be limited to training on public datasets rather than sensitive customer information.
• China's inflation: China's latest inflation data showed consumer prices (CPI) rising less than expected and remaining well below the People's Bank of China's 2% target, while producer prices (PPI) stayed above 4%, continuing to squeeze corporate profit margins.

Closing statement: Gold is benefiting from a softer US Dollar and signs of division within the Federal Reserve, allowing prices to recover from recent lows. However, rising expectations for another Fed rate hike continue to cap upside momentum, while developments in China and the evolving policy outlook remain key factors for the precious metal.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading with a negative bias around $72.40 during Thursday's European session after reaching a more than two-week high the previous day.
• Strait of Hormuz: According to Bloomberg, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited. Only one sanctioned very large crude carrier was reported using the Iran-controlled route, while no vessels were detected on the shipping lane closer to the Omani coast.
• Russia's fuel: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a ban on diesel exports, confirmed that Russia will begin importing fuel later this month, and said authorities have capped fuel prices on commodity exchanges. The fuel shortage is also spilling over into Central Asia, contributing to gasoline shortages in Kyrgyzstan, higher prices in Uzbekistan, and tighter export controls in Kazakhstan, underscoring growing regional supply pressures.
• China strategy: China, which accumulated more than 1.3 billion barrels of crude oil in storage before the Iran conflict, is reportedly delaying additional purchases until prices decline and shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz stabilize.
• US sanctions: The Trump administration has revoked the temporary sanctions waiver that previously allowed Iran to export oil and petrochemical products. The decision is expected to reduce Iran's oil revenues and tighten global supply, providing underlying support for crude prices despite broader concerns over demand.

Closing statement: WTI is consolidating after its recent rally as traders balance escalating geopolitical risks against mixed supply and demand dynamics. Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and tighter US sanctions on Iran offer support to prices, while China's cautious purchasing strategy and Russia's fuel market turmoil add further uncertainty to the global energy outlook.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading higher around the 25,050-point mark on Thursday, recovering part of the sharp decline seen over the previous two sessions.
• Trade surplus: Germany's May Trade Balance exceeded forecasts, recording a €19.1 billion surplus, up from €14.5 billion in April. The improvement was driven by stronger-than-expected export growth, suggesting that external demand remains resilient despite broader global economic headwinds.
• ECB's Nagel: ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel stated that recent developments surrounding Iran have brought uncertainty back into the economic outlook. He avoided giving any indication about the ECB's July meeting, emphasizing that policymakers will also have another opportunity to assess conditions at the September meeting.
• Volkswagen restructuring: Volkswagen announced that it will need to reduce excess production capacity as company stakeholders discuss plans to cut tens of thousands of additional jobs and potentially close manufacturing facilities.
• IMF outlook: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2026 global growth forecast down to 3.0% from 3.1%, while raising its 2027 forecast to 3.4% from 3.2%.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 is recovering as stronger German trade data supports sentiment, but investors remain cautious. Uncertainty surrounding the ECB's policy outlook, Volkswagen's restructuring efforts, geopolitical developments, and a softer global growth forecast are likely to keep volatility elevated in the sessions ahead.