Daily Analysis 11/09/2025

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades around 1.3515 during Thursday’s European session, marking its second day of muted movement. Traders remain cautious ahead of key UK data releases.
• Housing Market: The RICS Housing Price Balance dropped to -19% in August, the weakest reading in nearly two years, highlighting sluggish demand and ongoing pressure on property prices.
• Fiscal Concerns: Former BoE Governor Lord King warned about the UK’s rising national debt, stating the country is “not in a comfortable position” given post-crisis and pandemic fiscal burdens.
• US Inflation Data: The US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in softer than expected, but the market response was restrained, suggesting traders are waiting for further confirmation from upcoming CPI figures.
• UK Data: Attention shifts to UK GDP and factory output figures for July, due Friday, which will provide a clearer picture of the domestic economy’s momentum.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains range-bound near 1.3515, with weak housing data and fiscal warnings weighing on sentiment. Tomorrow’s GDP release will be pivotal for short-term direction.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) advances toward $3,630 in Thursday’s early European session, extending its strong momentum as traders brace for key US inflation data.
• Legal Dispute: The Trump administration appealed a court ruling blocking the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, aiming for resolution before the Fed’s September 16–17 policy meeting. The case highlights tensions around Fed independence.
• Producer Prices: US PPI slowed in August to 2.6% YoY from 3.3%, while Core PPI fell to 2.8% YoY from 3.5%. The softer data slightly increased dovish Fed expectations, adding marginal support for gold.
• Policy Outlooks: Fitch projects two 25bp Fed cuts in September and December, with three more in 2026. In contrast, it does not foresee additional ECB cuts, reinforcing a widening policy divergence.
• CPI Data: Markets await US CPI for August, expected at 2.9% YoY (from 2.7%), with Core CPI seen steady at 3.1%. A softer-than-expected print could accelerate gold’s rally.

Closing statement: Gold sustains upward momentum near $3,630, supported by dovish Fed expectations and investor caution ahead of US CPI. Inflation data will be the decisive driver for short-term direction.

• Crude Oil Price: WTI crude slipped to $63.30 per barrel in early Thursday trading, slightly below Wednesday’s $63.50 close. Prices remain under pressure amid weak demand signals and supply increases.
• US Inventory Data: The EIA reported a surprise build in US crude inventories, highlighting falling producer prices and a slowing labor market. These factors point to softening fuel demand, weighing on oil prices.
• OPEC+ Supply: OPEC+’s decision to raise production from October continues to pressure the market. Increased output risks adding to the oversupply narrative, particularly as demand indicators weaken.
• Trade War: Mexico announced tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese and other non-trade deal country autos, a move analysts see as aligning with US pressure on Beijing. Broader trade tensions may dampen global growth and energy demand.
• Geopolitical Risk: NATO fighter jets shot down Russian drones over Poland, escalating tensions and raising concerns about spillover from the Ukraine conflict. The invocation of NATO’s Article 4 underscores heightened geopolitical risks for energy markets.

Closing statement: Crude oil remains under downside pressure near $63.30, as demand signals weaken and OPEC+ supply increases loom. Geopolitical risks could provide intermittent support, but the near-term bias skews bearish.

• DAX Price: The DAX edged up 0.3% to around 23,670 points on Thursday, showing modest gains after recent volatility. Sentiment remains cautious amid mixed domestic and global signals.
• Domestic Policy: Germany’s cabinet approved a draft law to strengthen the country’s business environment, including improved financial conditions for small firms and startups, plus tax breaks for commuters and restaurants. The measures aim to bolster growth and competitiveness.
• Auto Sector: At the Munich International Motor Show (IAA), experts blamed political decisions for challenges in Germany’s automotive sector, with Chancellor Merz calling for “greater flexibility in regulation.” The sector remains a key test for Germany’s industrial resilience.
• Export Weakness: Exports to the US fell 7.9% in July, hitting their lowest level since 2021, according to Destatis data. The slump underscores the drag from US tariffs under Trump’s trade policies, highlighting ongoing pressure on Germany’s export-driven economy.
• Global Market: Wall Street’s S&P 500 hit record highs, partly supported by Oracle’s strong outlook. However, gains faded after the European close, showing fragile momentum that could spill over into European equity sentiment.

Closing statement: The DAX trades moderately higher at 23,670, supported by domestic policy measures but weighed down by weak exports and auto-sector strains. Near-term direction hinges on whether global equity momentum can offset Germany’s export challenges.