Daily Analysis 12/02/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades higher and holds above 1.3650 during the European session on Thursday, drawing support from UK macro releases despite lingering growth concerns.
• UK growth: The UK economy expanded by 0.1% QoQ in Q4 2025, matching Q3 but undershooting forecasts of 0.2%, reinforcing the view that growth momentum remains fragile and limiting upside for the pound.
• Labor market: Revised BLS data showed the US economy added only ~181K jobs in total during 2025, averaging 15K per month, one of the weakest non-recession years since the early 2000s, a factor weighing on the USD despite previously strong headline prints.
• Fed's Hammack: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that the labor market appears to be finding a healthy balance but stressed the importance of returning inflation to the 2% target, suggesting caution on the pace of rate cuts.
• Geopolitical risks: President Trump warned of a possible deployment of a second US aircraft carrier to the Middle East if talks with Iran fail, keeping geopolitical risk premia elevated and potentially influencing safe-haven flows.

Closing statement: GBP/USD finds short-term support above 1.3650, aided by softer US labor revisions. However, weak UK growth and cautious Fed rhetoric may cap gains. Near-term direction will depend on incoming US inflation data and geopolitical developments, with range-bound trading likely unless a fresh catalyst emerges.

• XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD trades in negative territory near $5,055 during the early European session on Thursday, easing from recent highs as markets adopt a cautious stance ahead of key US data.
• Middle East: US President Donald Trump reiterated his insistence on continued talks with Iran during a meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu, while also warning of possible action if a nuclear deal fails. The mixed messaging limits aggressive safe-haven buying but keeps downside pressure contained.
• Trade uncertainty: A Bloomberg report suggesting Trump is privately weighing a US exit from the USMCA trade pact has rattled investor confidence. Even the threat of withdrawal could destabilize global trade relations, providing underlying support to gold despite the intraday pullback.
• Peace talks: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that territorial concessions may be discussed in upcoming talks with the US, raising hopes for an end to the war and slightly dampening immediate safe-haven demand.
• US inflation: Traders are reluctant to take large positions ahead of Friday’s US CPI release, with both headline and core inflation expected to rise 2.5% YoY in January. A hotter-than-expected print could weigh on gold via higher rate expectations, while a downside surprise may reignite upside momentum.

Closing statement: Gold’s pullback toward $5,050 appears corrective rather than trend-reversing, as geopolitical uncertainty and trade risks continue to provide a solid floor. Near-term direction hinges on US CPI, with volatility likely around the release and $5,000 remaining a key psychological support zone.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate edges lower near $64.60 during European trading hours on Thursday, giving back part of the more than 1% advance posted in the previous session.
• Inventory build: Crude prices face renewed pressure after the EIA reported a hefty 8.53 million-barrel jump in US crude inventories last week. Although total stockpiles at 428.8 million barrels remain about 3% below the five-year seasonal average, the size of the build has revived near-term oversupply concerns.
• US demand: According to Rystad Energy, a still-strong US labor market continues to support demand for transport fuels, petrochemicals and power generation, helping to limit downside risks to US oil consumption despite a more cautious macro backdrop.
• OPEC outlook: OPEC left its 2026 and 2027 oil demand growth forecasts unchanged at 1.38 mbpd and 1.34 mbpd, respectively, while also maintaining its expectations for non-OPEC supply, offering little in the way of fresh directional cues.
• IEA report: The market now turns to the IEA’s monthly oil market report later today, which could once again highlight the risk of a global supply surplus, potentially adding further pressure if the outlook skews bearish.

Closing statement: WTI’s pullback appears largely driven by inventory dynamics, with strong US demand acting as a partial counterbalance. Near term, $64.00 remains key support, while any confirmation of a looming global surplus from the IEA could cap rebounds and keep prices vulnerable to further consolidation.

• DAX Price: The German benchmark index is trading higher by around 0.55%, hovering near 25,065 points in morning trade, supported by firm corporate headlines and a broadly constructive risk tone.
• Mercedes-Benz: Mercedes-Benz continues to face headwinds in the Chinese passenger car market, with CFO Harald Wilhelm acknowledging that sales remain under pressure despite hopes for a lift from new model launches in the second half of the year. The update underlines ongoing demand challenges for European automakers in China.
• Airbus orders: Airbus confirmed a firm order from Air Canada for eight A350-1000 aircraft, previously listed as an undisclosed customer in the November 2025 order book. The deal strengthens Airbus’ long-haul order pipeline and supports sentiment across the European aerospace sector.
• Siemens expectations: Siemens now expects revenue growth of at least 7% in the current fiscal year. Outgoing CFO Ralf Thomas narrowed guidance to the upper end of the previous 6–8% range, signaling confidence in order momentum and execution.
• Fed rate: Market pricing suggests that the first US Federal Reserve rate cut is now expected in July rather than June, according to Commerzbank, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” backdrop that could limit upside for rate-sensitive equities.

Closing statement: The DAX is finding support from strong company-specific news, particularly from Airbus and Siemens, offsetting weakness in parts of the auto sector. While delayed Fed easing could cap aggressive upside, the index remains constructive above 25,000, with near-term direction likely driven by earnings updates and global rate expectations.