Daily Analysis 15/07/2026

• GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair rises for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.3400 during European hours.
• Middle East: The US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that it carried out additional strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and along Iran's coastline.
• Market pricing: Investors are now fully expecting the Bank of England to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by September, with another increase anticipated before the end of the year.
• US inflation: The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed prices fell 0.4% month-on-month in June, marking the largest monthly decline in more than six years. Annual inflation eased to 3.5%, below expectations, suggesting that easing energy prices are beginning to reduce overall inflationary pressures.
• Fed Chair: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stressed that one favorable inflation report is not enough to declare victory. He emphasized the need for broader economic growth, said the Fed wants inflation to moderate further, and reiterated that the central bank has the necessary tools to maintain price stability, signaling that policymakers remain cautious about easing their stance.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is benefiting from expectations of additional Bank of England rate hikes and softer US inflation, which has weighed on the US Dollar. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to inflation are likely to remain important drivers of the pair in the near term.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is trading lower during Wednesday's European session after failing to sustain a move above the $4,100 level. Despite the pullback, the precious metal continues to hold above the important $4,000 psychological support, indicating that underlying demand remains intact.
• US-Iran: Investor attention remains focused on the Middle East after US President Donald Trump reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and introduced payment requirements for other cargo vessels.
• Fed hike: Gold found support after June US CPI data came in weaker than expected, prompting markets to sharply reduce the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in July from 42% to 17%.
• Fed Chair: In testimony before the US House of Representatives, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided commenting directly on the future path of interest rates.
• China's data: China released a mixed set of economic indicators. Second-quarter GDP growth fell short of official targets, although year-to-date growth remains within the government's 4.5%-5.0% objective. Meanwhile, industrial production accelerated to its strongest pace since March, but weaker power generation and refinery activity highlighted ongoing economic challenges, with authorities continuing to warn about an uncertain external environment.

Closing statement: Gold is consolidating above the $4,000 level as lower US inflation supports demand, while renewed geopolitical tensions provide additional safe-haven appeal.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continues its upward momentum, trading around $79.60 per barrel during Wednesday's European session.
• Iran targets: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had struck facilities linked to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, including command-and-control, logistics, fuel, and military equipment sites.
• Transit fee: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reiterated that Washington's priority is to ensure oil continues flowing through the Gulf region. He also confirmed that the previously discussed 20% transit fee for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is no longer being considered.
• US crude inventories: The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories fell by just 56,000 barrels, significantly less than the market expectation for a 2.7 million-barrel decline.
• Refining capacity: According to JPMorgan's Oil Markets Weekly, the market's focus is shifting beyond whether crude oil can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts argue that the more important question is whether the global refining system will have sufficient capacity to process additional crude supplies once normal shipping flows resume, highlighting a potential bottleneck for the energy market.

Closing statement: WTI remains supported by escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which continue to fuel supply concerns. However, a smaller-than-expected draw in US inventories and growing questions about global refining capacity suggest that volatility is likely to remain elevated as traders monitor both geopolitical developments and energy market fundamentals.

• DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading lower around the 24,850-point mark during Wednesday's session, extending this week's pullback.
• ASML news: Positive business updates from Dutch chip equipment manufacturer ASML provided support for German technology stocks in pre-market trading.
• Deutsche Bank: The Frankfurt prosecutor's office confirmed that authorities carried out a raid at a Deutsche Bank branch in Frankfurt after executing a court-issued search warrant. While the investigation's full details have not been disclosed, the development could weigh on investor sentiment toward Germany's largest lender.
• Airbus news: Attention is turning to Airbus ahead of the Farnborough Airshow on July 20, where investors are expected to focus less on new aircraft orders and more on whether management provides clear 2028 delivery and profitability targets.
• Siemens branding: Siemens Energy and its wind turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa announced a unified rebranding under the new umbrella name Omterra.

Closing statement: The DAX 40 remains on the defensive despite supportive news from the semiconductor sector. Corporate developments involving Deutsche Bank, Airbus, and Siemens Energy are likely to remain in focus, while broader market sentiment continues to be shaped by geopolitical uncertainty and expectations for European economic growth.