Daily Analysis 17/11/2025

• GBP/USD Price: The pair trades modestly higher in Monday’s European session, hovering near 1.3170. The move reflects a mild recovery in sterling sentiment amid a relatively steady USD backdrop.
• UK GDP: The UK economy expanded 0.1% in Q3, down from 0.3% in Q2, missing expectations of 0.2%. The softer growth print reinforces concerns about the UK’s sluggish economic momentum heading into year-end.
• Markets Prediction: Interest-rate swaps now imply roughly a 79% probability of a 25 bps cut at the BoE’s December 18 meeting. This expectation continues to act as a headwind for the pound, as easing bets weigh on yields.
• BoE’s Mann: A speech from External MPC Member Catherine Mann later today may influence short-term rate expectations. Markets will watch for any shift in tone that could validate or challenge the strong pricing of a December cut.
• CPI Data: Next week’s October CPI release is the major upcoming event, with headline inflation steady at 3.8% y/y and core CPI at 3.5% y/y in September. A softer print would strengthen the case for near-term easing, while an upside surprise could reduce cut bets.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is holding above 1.31, but softer growth and elevated expectations of a December rate cut keep sterling vulnerable. Short-term direction will hinge on upcoming CPI data and Mann’s remarks, with risks skewed slightly to the downside if economic signals remain weak.

• XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD remains under pressure for a third consecutive session but shows no strong bearish momentum, holding just above last Friday’s one-week low. Market sentiment is cautious, keeping gold confined to a narrow trading band.
• Shutdown Ends: The 43-day US government shutdown ended on Wednesday, raising expectations that official agencies—including the BLS and BEA—will soon restore their economic release schedules. A return of timely macro data could reintroduce volatility into gold markets.
• Fed Officials: Several Fed policymakers have adopted a more hawkish tone, resisting expectations for additional monetary easing. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid reiterated on Friday that inflation remains too high, limiting the Fed’s room to cut rates—an environment typically unfavorable for gold.
• US-Swiss Trade: A new trade agreement finalized Friday cuts tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, in exchange for Switzerland committing to invest USD 200bn in the US. The deal, which aligns Swiss treatment with the EU, may modestly improve global trade sentiment but has limited direct impact on gold.
• NFP and FOMC: This week’s major catalysts will be the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and the October Nonfarm Payrolls report on Thursday. With gold currently lacking directional conviction, stronger US data could weigh on prices, while softer outcomes may offer support.

Closing statement: Gold trades cautiously, supported by uncertainty but capped by hawkish Fed commentary. The return of US data releases—especially NFP—will likely dictate XAU/USD’s next directional move, keeping short-term risks balanced with a slight bias toward downside pressure if the Fed’s tone remains firm.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slips in early European trading on Monday, falling to $59.40 per barrel from Friday’s close of $59.77. The decline reflects renewed bearish sentiment driven by supply-side expectations and geopolitical concerns.
• OPEC+ Production: Market indications suggest OPEC+ is likely to keep increasing output in 2026, even if prices remain under pressure. Traders anticipate that the expected oversupply will be manageable, limiting the incentive for the group to shift away from its current strategy.
• Bloomberg Survey: A Bloomberg poll of 25 energy-focused traders and analysts shows 67% expect OPEC+ to maintain production increases next year. The remaining respondents foresee a pause or reversal—highlighting—but not resolving—uncertainty over the group’s response to evolving market conditions.
• Russia Oil: Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed oil loadings on Sunday after a Ukrainian strike last week forced a temporary halt. The quick restoration of operations supports supply flows and adds mild downward pressure to prices.
• Strait of Hormuz: Geopolitical tensions rose after Iran seized a tanker heading to Singapore, marking the first major escalation in the Middle East since the June Iran–Israel conflict. While the Strait of Hormuz is a key chokepoint, markets so far assess the disruption risk as contained.

Closing statement: WTI begins the week on the back foot as expectations of continued OPEC+ output increases and restored Russian exports reinforce a soft supply outlook. Geopolitical tensions may offer intermittent support, but the broader narrative leans toward downside pressure unless demand signals improve.

• DAX Price: The DAX is poised to open Monday with little movement, trading around 23,900 points, following a 1.3% gain last week. Investors appear cautious as momentum from the prior recovery phase begins to cool.
• Global Market: A renewed global equity pullback has clouded the outlook for Germany’s benchmark index. With mid-November typically strong for stocks, traders are now questioning whether seasonal trends will still support a potential year-end rally.
• ECB Policymakers: Multiple ECB officials reaffirmed that no changes to interest rates are warranted under current conditions. This stable policy backdrop may help cap volatility but offers limited fresh upside catalysts for equities.
• Earnings Season: The recent torrent of corporate earnings reports will ease this week. Monday will feature capital markets events from Siemens Healthineers, Deutsche Bank, and semiconductor supplier Suss, providing sector-specific insights but limited broad market impact.
• Events Ahead: Markets will shift focus midweek to Nvidia’s quarterly report, which arrives after the New York close and carries global tech-sector implications. On Thursday, Siemens Energy and Renk host capital market days, followed by quarterly results from CTS Eventim, keeping investors attentive to company-specific signals.

Closing statement: The DAX enters the week on a steady but cautious footing, with global corrections and a quieter earnings calendar tempering enthusiasm. Forward momentum may depend on Nvidia’s results and broader sentiment shifts that could revive hopes for a late-year rally.