EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair declined further to around 1.1465 during the European session on Thursday, continuing its recent downtrend. The move reflects a shift in sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range, reinforcing support for the US Dollar.
- Fed Rates: At its June meeting, the Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged, as expected, maintaining a cautious stance amid lingering inflation concerns. This solidified the Greenback’s position, as markets remain unsure about the timing of future rate cuts.
- Lagarde Signals: ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the rate-cutting phase is nearing completion, asserting that the central bank is “in a good position” to manage uncertainties. Her tone was moderately hawkish, helping to prevent steeper losses in the Euro.
- Other ECB views: Some ECB policymakers, including Mario Centeno and Fabio Panetta, voiced concerns over the EU's economic weakness, hinting that persistent sluggish growth may challenge the 2% inflation target. This divergence in ECB commentary is adding pressure to the Euro as markets reassess rate outlooks.
- ECB Speeches: Traders are closely watching upcoming speeches from ECB officials, including Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, and Luis de Guindos, later on Thursday. Their tone could either validate or counter recent dovish concerns, providing potential catalysts for short-term EUR/USD movement.
| SMA (20) | Rising |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains under pressure due to a stable Fed and uncertainty surrounding the ECB’s policy trajectory. Near-term direction will hinge on ECB communication clarity and macroeconomic data surprises, particularly from both sides of the Atlantic.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair trades flat for a third straight session, hovering around 1.3380 during European hours on Thursday. Investors appear hesitant ahead of the Bank of England’s key policy decision, maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
- UK Inflation: The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 3.4% year-over-year in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The higher inflation print may influence the BoE's tone, though it remains within a moderate range historically.
- BoE Policy Decision: Markets are on edge as the BoE prepares to announce its policy decision at the fourth Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025. The accompanying Meeting Minutes will provide insight into the central bank’s internal debate, crucial for forward guidance.
- Fed Caution: On the US side, the Federal Reserve has signaled a slower rate-cutting trajectory, citing risks that Trump’s tariffs could drive consumer prices higher. This stance supports the US Dollar, limiting GBP/USD’s upside.
- Sterling Sentiment: Given the combination of sticky inflation and Fed resilience, traders will closely analyze the BoE’s inflation outlook and rate path signals. Any dovish tone could reinforce Sterling weakness, especially if rate cuts appear imminent.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains in consolidation mode, as traders await clarity from the BoE’s policy statement and inflation stance. Meanwhile, Fed caution and tariff risks lend modest support to the Dollar, keeping the pair under pressure.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD trades sideways around the $3,350 mark during the European session on Thursday, struggling to build on its earlier modest gains. Market participants are awaiting clearer directional cues as geopolitical tensions and central bank policy remain in focus.
- Fed Stance: Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a neutral tone, emphasizing that US monetary policy is “well positioned to respond” to evolving risks, including tariffs and geopolitical instability. This cautious but flexible outlook has had a limited immediate impact on gold.
- FOMC Dot Plot: The Fed's updated dot plot signals two interest rate cuts later this year, reinforcing expectations of a gradual easing cycle. This should lend medium-term support to non-yielding assets like gold, though current prices appear to already reflect much of this sentiment.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Bloomberg reported that US officials may strike Iran in the coming days, with sources pointing to possible weekend action. This development has heightened safe-haven demand, helping to keep gold resilient near recent highs.
- US Holiday: With US markets closed for Juneteenth, liquidity is expected to remain thin on Thursday, which raises the risk of irregular price swings in gold trading, especially in response to any sudden geopolitical headlines.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Gold remains range-bound near $3,500, caught between Fed policy expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions. While rate cut bets are broadly supportive, near-term price action may remain choppy due to low liquidity and headline risk.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $73.30 during Thursday's European session, supported by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a significant draw in US inventories.
- Middle East Tensions: The Israel-Iran conflict has entered its seventh day, with the IDF warning civilians in Arak and Khondab to evacuate due to military operations. The threat of a broader regional war is growing, fueling risk premiums across energy markets.
- US Military Options: US President Donald Trump convened a high-level Situation Room meeting on Wednesday to review possible responses to the Middle East conflict. While attack plans are reportedly approved, Trump appears cautious about triggering a prolonged war that could destabilize global oil flows.
- US Crude Inventories: The US EIA reported a substantial draw of 11.473 million barrels in crude oil stockpiles for the week ending June 13. This sharp decline, compared to the previous week’s 3.644 million barrel draw, indicates tightening supply and provides strong support to oil prices.
- IEA Outlook: The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand forecast slightly downward by 20,000 bpd, while raising the supply forecast by 200,000 bpd, bringing expected supply growth to 1.8 million bpd. This adjustment could limit oil’s upside if geopolitical risks recede.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: WTI prices are buoyed by massive inventory draws and growing geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East. However, IEA’s modest downward revision to demand and increased supply estimates may cap gains if tensions ease. The short-term outlook hinges on further developments in the Israel-Iran conflict and any concrete US military action.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX is currently trading below 23,262, breaking through the key 23,400 support level and marking a six-week low. The index remains under pressure amid macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Airbus Rally: Airbus shares surged up to 4%, emerging as one of the DAX's top performers. The company reaffirmed its annual outlook and promised sustainable dividend growth, attracting investors seeking yield in a volatile market.
- Powell Highlights: Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank would wait to assess the inflationary impact of President Trump’s tariffs before making further rate decisions. He emphasized that consumers ultimately bear the cost, based on historical data and corporate feedback.
- Iran's Rejection: Geopolitical tension intensified after Iran categorically rejected Trump’s claim that it had proposed White House talks. Tehran’s UN mission dismissed the notion of negotiating under pressure, further souring US-Iran relations.
- US Economic Data: Recent weekly jobless claims and housing data from the US pointed to a weakening economic backdrop. This added to global growth concerns and weighed on investor sentiment across European markets, including the DAX.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: The DAX is facing technical and fundamental pressures, breaking below key support as investor caution deepens. Strong earnings from Airbus provided a brief lift, but Fed policy uncertainty, tariff risks, and escalating geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the outlook. Further downside remains likely if global macro signals deteriorate.