EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD trades near 1.1640 on Thursday, edging lower after modest gains in the prior session as traders remain cautious ahead of key Eurozone data.
- Eurozone CPI: The Eurozone’s July final CPI came in at +2.0% y/y, matching preliminary figures. This outcome reaffirms the ECB’s pause stance after last year’s rate-cut cycle.
- ECB Commentary: President Christine Lagarde stressed ongoing uncertainty despite recent trade deals, noting that the Euro-Area economy showed resilience earlier this year.
- Policy Outlook: Markets expect the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.0% in September, extending its summer pause following a series of rate cuts.
- Upcoming Data: Traders are sidelined ahead of Eurozone and German flash PMIs for August, due later Thursday, which could set the next directional cue for the pair.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains range-bound with a slight bearish bias, as stable inflation and ECB caution temper upside momentum. Upcoming PMI data will be critical for fresh positioning.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD trades around 1.3450 on Thursday, losing traction in the European session as sentiment weakens ahead of key data releases.
- UK Inflation: The latest UK inflation figures highlight persistent price pressures, complicating the BoE’s policy outlook. Markets are beginning to price out any rate cuts for 2024.
- BoE Commentary: Governor Andrew Bailey recently warned that food and energy costs are lifting inflation expectations, with the BoE raising one-year forward CPI projections to 2.7% from 2.4%.
- Fed Outlook: Across the Atlantic, the CME FedWatch Tool signals an 85% probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in September, keeping USD demand relatively supported.
- Upcoming Data: Focus now shifts to UK-US preliminary S&P Global PMI data for August, due Thursday, which could set the next directional tone for the pair.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  |
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD faces downside pressure as UK inflation complicates BoE policy while Fed rate cut bets support the dollar. PMI readings will likely provide the next catalyst.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) slips toward $3,340 per ounce, facing selling pressure after touching two-day highs earlier in the session.
- Fed Nominee: Fed nominee David Zervos argued policy is too restrictive, hinting at potential easing, though markets remain cautious ahead of Jackson Hole.
- Political Pressure: US President Donald Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation and renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, pressing for aggressive rate cuts.
- Trade Developments: The US expanded 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to cover 407 additional product categories, raising trade tensions and potentially boosting safe-haven demand.
- Market Focus: Attention now turns to Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, which could provide key signals on the Fed’s rate outlook under heightened political scrutiny.
| SMA (20) | Neutral |
| RSI (14) | Neutral |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Neutral |
Closing statement: Gold remains pressured despite trade risks, with political pressure on the Fed intensifying ahead of Jackson Hole. Markets await Powell’s remarks for clarity on policy direction.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude trades higher near $63.00 per barrel, extending gains from Wednesday’s close at $62.79, supported by improving risk sentiment.
- Geopolitical Developments: Talk of a possible Trump–Putin–Zelenskyy trilateral summit introduces geopolitical uncertainty, though Moscow stressed any such talks would require gradual preparation at the expert and diplomatic levels.
- US Security Role: Trump suggested the US could provide air security guarantees to Ukraine but reiterated that no ground troops will be deployed, signaling limited direct military involvement while keeping energy markets alert.
- US-China Trade: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted constructive talks with China during the current tariff truce, with further negotiations expected before November. This has eased some concerns about global demand pressures.
- Labor Market: Initial jobless claims are forecast to edge up to 225K, with continuing claims at 1.96 million, reinforcing signs of a gradually softening labor market and potential implications for Fed policy and oil demand.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Falling | | |
Closing statement: Crude oil extends modest gains, but geopolitical risks, US–China trade talks, and weakening US labor data remain central drivers for sentiment. Traders are watching for further clarity on demand outlook amid political uncertainty.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX closed 0.6% lower at 24,276 on Wednesday and is expected to open Thursday’s session with little movement, according to bank and brokerage projections.
- Trade Policy: Germany’s economy ministry urged against further trade restrictions after Washington announced new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, highlighting risks for export-driven sectors.
- US Economic Data: S&P Global PMIs are anticipated to show a slight slowdown in US activity: Manufacturing seen slipping to 49.5 and Services to 54.2, reinforcing signs of cooling momentum under high inflation.
- Fed Policy: Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed little appetite for rate cuts, with most members favoring holding the 4.25–4.50% range, keeping policy restrictive for now.
- Jackson Hole: Markets eye the Jackson Hole Symposium, with remarks from Fed officials including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Thursday expected to guide policy expectations.
| SMA (20) | Neutral | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX faces a cautious tone as US economic slowdown risks, restrictive Fed policy, and trade tensions weigh on sentiment, leaving traders focused on Jackson Hole signals.