EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair is trading in positive territory around 1.1245 during early European trading on Thursday.
- French borrowing: French 10-year borrowing costs climbed above 5% on Wednesday for the first time in 24 years, as weekend unrest across France highlighted the political challenges of bringing budget deficits under control.
- Euro outlook: Spectra Markets President Brent Donnelly described the euro as caught in a stalemate, with negative news being largely offset by market positioning.
- ECB rates: The European Central Bank is likely to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% next week, according to Reuters, while a rate hike before the end of the year is largely priced into market expectations.
- ECB's Panetta: ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta is scheduled to speak later on Thursday, with investors likely to monitor his comments for additional clues about the central bank’s policy outlook.
| SMA (20) | Falling |  | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
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| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD is trading higher near 1.1245, but the pair faces conflicting influences. Expectations of an ECB rate hike before year-end could support the euro, while rising French borrowing costs and political unrest pose downside risks. In the near term, the pair’s direction may depend on Panetta’s comments and whether markets continue to price in tighter ECB policy, with the current balance of forces potentially keeping trading range-bound.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair entered a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Thursday, trading just below the 1.3400 level.
- US Embassies: Reports indicate that the US State Department is preparing to order some personnel and their family members to leave US embassies across the Gulf region.
- Peace talks: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had told US envoy Steve Witkoff that he was prepared, in principle, to resume trilateral talks on Ukraine in mid-November. The Kremlin expressed confidence that US President Donald Trump would welcome the development.
- Fed rate: The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are pricing in approximately a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
- Energy fund: The UK government has announced the creation of an Energy Wealth Fund, with £2 billion redirected from the existing National Wealth Fund, according to Chancellor John Healey’s announcement on Wednesday.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising |  | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD remains in a bullish consolidation phase just below 1.3400, supported by its recent advance and proximity to multi-week highs. However, expectations of a December Fed rate hike and escalating geopolitical risks could strengthen the US dollar and restrict further upside. Potential progress toward renewed Ukraine peace talks and the UK’s energy investment plans may offer some support, but the pair’s near-term direction will likely depend on dollar sentiment and whether GBP/USD can sustain its recent bullish momentum.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a heavily offered tone heading into the European session on Thursday, trading around the $4,070-$4,065 region near its monthly swing low.
- Russia signals: Russia has reportedly agreed in principle to resume US-mediated talks with Ukraine, creating a potential diplomatic opening without guaranteeing progress toward peace. According to Reuters, trilateral discussions involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States could restart after November 10, focusing on future security guarantees.
- Tesla report: Tesla reported third-quarter earnings of $0.48 per share, compared with the $0.45 consensus estimate, while revenue reached $28.0 billion against expectations of $27.8 billion. CEO Elon Musk also said during the earnings call that the Terafab project would require tens of billions of dollars in spending.
- Military plans: The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel have drawn up plans for a short but intense military campaign against Iran following the US midterm elections.
- Data ahead: Investors are awaiting the latest US weekly initial jobless claims data for fresh insight into labour-market conditions.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Gold remains under significant selling pressure near $4,065–$4,070, with the monthly swing low representing an important area to monitor. Potential progress toward renewed Ukraine talks could reduce safe-haven demand, while reports of possible US-Israeli military action against Iran may offer a countervailing source of support. In the near term, US jobless claims and their implications for Federal Reserve policy could influence the next move, with a sustained break below the recent lows increasing downside risks and a recovery potentially requiring renewed safe-haven demand or a softer US dollar.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil price, attracted fresh buyers on Thursday, rising to around $101.10 during the European session.
- Russia-USA: Moscow’s release of retired US teacher Stephen Hubbard, alongside offers to assist Washington on Iran and fertiliser supplies, appears aimed at broadening negotiations and improving ties with the Trump administration.
- Iran signals: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is prepared to give diplomacy another chance if it sees strong evidence that the United States genuinely seeks a just solution.
- Strikes on Iran: The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel have drawn up plans for a possible new round of strikes against Iran following the US midterm elections.
- Drone attack: Two expatriates were killed and two others injured in a drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, according to the latest reports.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: WTI has climbed to around $101.10, with geopolitical developments providing significant support to the market. The reported drone attack on Saudi Aramco’s Shaybah field and the possibility of further US-Israeli strikes against Iran increase concerns over regional supply disruptions, while renewed diplomatic efforts could limit gains if tensions ease. In the near term, crude oil is likely to remain sensitive to developments involving Iran, Saudi energy infrastructure and US-Russia relations, with further escalation potentially driving prices higher.
DAX
- DAX 40 Price: The DAX 40 is trading lower at around 25,400 points on Thursday morning.
- Bundesbank report: The German Bundesbank’s monthly report indicates that inflation is expected to remain elevated for some time.
- Car registrations: New car registrations across the EU27 increased by 9.3% in September, compared with 4.5% in the previous period. The stronger growth points to improving momentum in the automotive sector.
- Consumer confidence: The euro area’s flash consumer confidence indicator for October is due for release, with expectations pointing to a slight decline following the recent increase in energy costs.
- Corporate earnings: Investors in Germany will focus on earnings from SAP and Sartorius, while US results from companies including Lockheed Martin and Procter & Gamble will also attract attention.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX 40 is trading lower near 25,400 points as investors weigh persistent inflation risks against signs of stronger activity in the European automotive sector. The Bundesbank’s warning and the potential decline in consumer confidence could weigh on sentiment, while encouraging corporate earnings may provide support. In the near term, the index’s direction will likely depend on the consumer confidence release, company results and expectations for the ECB’s monetary policy.