Daily Analysis 24/02/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is edging lower around the 1.3480 area during European trading, following two consecutive sessions of gains. This pullback points to near-term consolidation as bullish momentum eases and traders reassess incoming policy signals.
• BoE outlook: BoE policymaker Alan Taylor expressed concerns about the UK’s growth outlook while remaining optimistic that inflation will return to the 2% target. His support for additional near-term rate cuts reinforces expectations of a more accommodative policy stance, weighing on Sterling sentiment.
• US trade: According to the The Wall Street Journal, the administration of Donald Trump is considering new national security tariffs across multiple industries. This follows a US Supreme Court ruling that invalidated several levies, reviving trade uncertainty and lending relative support to the US Dollar.
• Fed's Waller: Christopher Waller stated that his stance on a potential rate cut at the March FOMC meeting will hinge on February labor market data. This data-dependent approach keeps US rate expectations flexible, introducing two-way risks for the Dollar in the near term.
• Focus: Market attention is shifting to the BoE’s Monetary Policy Report hearings, where testimony from Governor Andrew Bailey and other MPC members will be closely scrutinized. Any reinforcement of a dovish bias could further pressure the Pound.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is undergoing a modest correction as dovish BoE rhetoric and renewed US trade risks offset recent gains, with near-term direction likely driven by central bank communications on both sides of the Atlantic.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is posting modest intraday losses after failing to sustain gains near its monthly peak but continues to hold above the $5,150 level. The lack of follow-through selling suggests underlying demand remains firm, with buyers stepping in on shallow pullbacks.
• Fed expectations: According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are still pricing in the possibility of three 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. These expectations keep US yields capped, providing an important medium-term support pillar for non-yielding assets like gold.
• China market: Markets in China reopened after the Lunar New Year against a mixed macro backdrop, with a new tariff regime reducing effective tariff costs for several emerging and developed economies. While not an immediate catalyst, this shift reflects ongoing changes in global trade flows that can influence risk sentiment and safe-haven demand.
• US-Iran: The United States and Iran are expected to hold further talks in Geneva, signaling cautious optimism from Donald Trump’s administration regarding Iran’s nuclear proposals. While diplomatic progress could reduce extreme risk premiums, the situation continues to support a baseline level of geopolitical hedging via gold.
• Inflation data: Attention is turning to Friday’s US Producer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with both headline and core PPI expected to rise 0.3% in January. The data could influence expectations around the Fed’s rate path, creating short-term volatility for gold prices.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains supported above key levels as rate-cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainty offset modest profit-taking, with near-term direction likely hinging on incoming US inflation data and shifts in Fed policy expectations.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate is extending gains for a second consecutive session, trading near $66.50 per barrel during European hours. The continued advance reflects improved near-term sentiment, though prices remain within a broader range shaped by competing supply and demand signals.
• US-Iran: Oman confirmed that a third round of talks between the United States and Iran will take place this week in Geneva. Renewed diplomatic engagement raises the prospect of future Iranian supply returning to the market, which could temper upside expectations.
• Trump’s remarks: Donald Trump stated a preference for a diplomatic agreement with Iran but warned of severe consequences if talks fail. This dual message keeps geopolitical risk premiums partially intact, supporting prices in the short term while capping aggressive bullish positioning.
• EIA outlook: The Energy Information Administration warned that expanding global oil inventories are likely to weigh on prices. Its projections show production growth exceeding consumption, pointing to rising stockpiles and a structurally softer medium-term supply-demand balance.
• India demand: Crude processing by refiners in India declined 0.2% month-on-month in January 2026 to 5.63 million bpd. Although modest, this pullback signals slightly weaker demand from a key consuming nation, reinforcing concerns about global demand momentum.

Closing statement: WTI is supported in the near term by geopolitical developments and positive momentum, but rising global inventories and softer demand signals suggest upside may remain limited unless supply risks materially escalate.

• DAX Price: The DAX is trading lower around the 25,000-point level, moving in line with broader European peers amid a risk-off environment. Investor caution is driven by concerns over renewed turbulence in global trade tariffs, which is weighing on equity risk appetite.
• Ifo numbers: Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 88.6 in February, its highest reading since August 2025 and above market expectations. Despite the positive signal for business confidence, investors appear to be looking past the data as macro and trade-related uncertainties dominate sentiment.
• MTU Aero Engines: Shares of MTU Aero Engines are in focus after the company forecast 2026 revenue and profit broadly in line with expectations. The outlook is supported by strong demand for engine maintenance services, linked to ongoing issues with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF engines.
• Auto sector: The car market across the European Union started the year on a weak footing, with January passenger car registrations falling 3.9% year-on-year. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association highlights ongoing demand challenges for the auto sector, a key component of the DAX.
• Fresenius earnings: Fresenius Medical Care reported a sharp increase in fourth-quarter operating income. Improved profitability was driven by accelerating cost savings and favorable reimbursement effects, providing a stock-specific positive offset to the broader cautious market tone.

Closing statement: The DAX remains under pressure from risk-off sentiment and trade uncertainty, with positive domestic data and company earnings offering only selective support, suggesting near-term performance may stay subdued unless macro risks ease.