Daily Analysis 24/11/2025

• GBP/USD Price: After Friday’s rebound, the pair struggles to extend gains as early-week trading shows sideways movement driven by mixed sentiment toward the Pound.
• Retail Sales: ONS data revealed a 1.1% MoM decline, marking the first drop in five months and reversing September’s revised 0.7% increase. The weaker consumer activity underscores fragile domestic demand.
• UK Data: The combination of declining Retail Sales, slower PMI expansion, and lackluster GDP growth has strengthened expectations that the Bank of England may need to ease policy sooner, weighing on Sterling.
• Autumn Budget: Markets expect fiscal details to influence the BoE’s upcoming decisions, with policymakers likely waiting for greater clarity before adjusting the policy path.
• Fed Commentary: Fed President Susan Collins noted a “high bar” for supporting additional rate cuts, helping cap USD weakness and tempering GBP/USD gains despite softer outlook for the UK economy.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains range-bound around 1.3100 as conflicting central-bank expectations create a tug-of-war. The Autumn Budget and US data later this week will be crucial in setting the next directional move.

• XAU/USD Price: XAU/USD faces renewed selling pressure in early Europe, though the move lower remains shallow as buyers and sellers remain cautious ahead of key US data.
• Fed Commentary: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that without clear justification for further easing, holding rates steady is appropriate—reinforcing a less-dovish Fed outlook that weighs on gold.
• Geopolitical News: Ukraine’s major drone attack on Russian infrastructure and continued Russian advances highlight conflict uncertainty, while President Trump’s November 27 peace-plan deadline adds new political pressure.
• Consumer Sentiment: Despite sentiment plunging to record lows, even after tariff-cut announcements, the US Dollar strengthened last week, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
• US Data: Traders await Tuesday’s releases of the delayed PPI, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence, all of which could shift expectations for Fed policy and influence gold’s next direction.

Closing statement: Gold remains pressured below $4,065 as a firmer USD and cautious Fed stance dominate sentiment. Upcoming US data will likely determine whether XAU/USD continues its decline or stabilizes.

• Crude Oil Price: Oil prices edge higher in early European trading, supported by mild buying interest after last week’s declines, though overall sentiment remains fragile.
• Peace Terms: Kyiv is seeking revisions to a plan requiring major concessions to Russia, adding uncertainty to geopolitical risk premiums that influence crude markets.
• Venezuela-Russia: Caracas approved a 15-year extension of joint oil ventures with Russian firms, signaling stronger long-term cooperation that may help Russia maintain global energy influence despite sanctions.
• Lukoil News: Abu Dhabi’s IHC notified the U.S. Treasury of its interest in acquiring Lukoil’s foreign operations, reflecting growing competition for Russian energy assets now constrained by Western sanctions.
• Tanker Rates: Supertanker freight rates on the Middle East–China route jumped to about $137,000 per day as traders seek non-Russian crude alternatives, raising transport costs and tightening global supply logistics.

Closing statement: WTI trades lower near $57.70 as geopolitical developments, shifting alliances, and surging tanker rates add upward pressure. Market direction now hinges on evolving Russia-Ukraine negotiations and global supply adjustments.

• DAX Price: The index trades near 23,320 as markets begin the new week cautiously, with recent downside momentum still weighing on investor sentiment.
• Business Confidence: The IFO Business Climate Index slipped to 88.1 in November, missing expectations. The decline signals continued concerns about economic momentum heading into year-end.
• PMI Data: November’s composite PMI eased slightly to 52.4, while manufacturing dipped back below 50 and services ticked higher. The readings point to a mixed but stable activity backdrop across the bloc.
• Earnings Season: Only one major company, real estate group Aroundtown, is set to report results this week, leaving fewer catalysts for stock-specific moves within the index.
• U.S. Market: With Thanksgiving holidays closing U.S. exchanges Thursday and limiting trading Friday, German markets will rely more heavily on domestic and European drivers.

Closing statement: The DAX begins the week on the defensive as softer sentiment indicators and limited earnings catalysts keep investors cautious. Markets may trade more quietly later in the week due to reduced U.S. participation.