Daily Analysis 26/02/2026

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is holding in positive territory for a fifth straight session, trading around the 1.3560 level in early European hours. The continued advance highlights persistent buying interest and favorable near-term momentum for Sterling.
• Fiscal policy: Attention is turning to the upcoming spring statement in Parliament, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves is scheduled to speak on March 3. The statement could influence fiscal expectations and investor confidence, with any expansionary signals potentially offering support to UK assets.
• SOTU address: In his State of the Union address, Donald Trump emphasized a rebounding US economy while defending tariffs as supportive for growth. His criticism of the US Supreme Court for overturning parts of the tariff framework reinforces policy uncertainty, which has limited sustained US Dollar strength.
• US trade: US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlined potential next steps on tariffs, including the use of Section 301 to impose duties exceeding 15% if discriminatory practices are found. This escalation risk adds to global trade uncertainty, indirectly supporting GBP/USD through Dollar softness.
• BoE rate: Markets continue to price in a March rate cut from the Bank of England, driven by weakening UK labor market conditions and easing inflation pressures. These expectations may cap Sterling gains despite the pair’s current upward momentum.

Closing statement: GBP/USD remains supported by sustained upside momentum and US policy uncertainty, though anticipated BoE easing could limit further appreciation, suggesting gains may slow as key policy events approach.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is trading with mild gains near the $5,185 level during early European hours. This steady performance indicates that buyers remain active, keeping prices supported after recent consolidation.
• Technical outlook: Gold remains comfortably above its 50-period moving average near $5,140, which is acting as near-term support. With the 200-period moving average significantly lower around $5,046, the broader technical structure continues to signal a firmly bullish trend.
• US tariffs: After the US Supreme Court struck down his prior “liberation day” tariffs, Donald Trump responded by announcing a new 10% global tariff, with plans to raise it to 15%. The renewed uncertainty around US trade policy is underpinning demand for gold as a hedge against policy-driven volatility.
• Equity market: The latest earnings from Nvidia delivered a strong sales outlook, highlighting continued robust demand for AI-related chips. While not a direct driver for gold, strong equity performance can coexist with gold strength when macro and geopolitical risks remain elevated.
• Geopolitical news: In his State of the Union address, Trump outlined a hardline stance toward Iran, including the possibility of military action. Such rhetoric elevates geopolitical risk, supporting safe-haven flows into gold.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains well supported by trade and geopolitical uncertainty alongside a strong technical backdrop, suggesting that the broader bullish trend is likely to persist despite only modest near-term gains.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate is trading around the $65.50 level during European hours, reflecting a subdued tone. Price action suggests the market is consolidating as traders weigh heavy supply signals against geopolitical risk.
• OPEC+ supply: Reports indicate that eight OPEC+ members will discuss a 137,000 bpd output increase for April at the March 1 meeting. A return to production hikes after a three-month pause reinforces expectations of looser supply conditions, adding pressure to prices.
• Saudi planning: Saudi Arabia has activated contingency plans to temporarily boost output and exports if a US strike on Iran disrupts regional flows. This readiness to offset potential disruptions reduces the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.
• US inventory: The Energy Information Administration reported that US crude stockpiles surged by nearly 16 million barrels in the week ending February 20, the largest increase in three years. This substantial build underscores oversupply concerns and highlights weak near-term demand dynamics.
• US-Iran talks: Traders are closely monitoring developments in nuclear talks between the United States and Iran scheduled later on Thursday. Any signs of progress could further ease supply risk expectations, while setbacks may offer only limited upside given strong inventory data.

Closing statement: WTI remains under pressure from rising inventories and looming OPEC+ supply increases, with geopolitical risks muted by ample spare capacity, suggesting downside bias may persist unless talks or supply decisions deliver a surprise.

• DAX Price: Frankfurt’s DAX 40 is trading around 25,165 points, showing mostly sideways movement. This consolidation suggests that investors are cautious, balancing corporate earnings with macroeconomic developments.
• German GDP: Final Q4 2025 GDP showed a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, driven by strong domestic demand. Private consumption increased as households spent more and worked additional hours, reducing the savings rate to 9.4% from 10.4%, indicating resilient consumer activity supporting the economy.
• Corporate earnings: Deutsche Telekom reported lower Q4 net profit due to integration costs from its US cellular acquisition, despite rising revenue. Meanwhile, Allianz posted a 7.7% increase in Q4 net profit, slightly below expectations, reflecting strength in property and casualty operations but a cautious outlook for financial sector drivers.
• Inflation trends: Germany’s VAT reduction on restaurants and other one-off measures helped moderate services inflation. Nevertheless, underlying price momentum remains consistent with recent months, suggesting persistent but contained inflationary pressures that could influence ECB policy considerations.
• CPI data: Traders are awaiting Germany’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading on Friday. The data will be closely monitored for signals on the pace of future policy easing by the European Central Bank, which may affect the DAX’s near-term direction.

Closing statement: The DAX is consolidating near current levels, supported by steady domestic demand and selective corporate earnings, while market participants await German CPI data to gauge potential ECB policy adjustments that could shape near-term equity sentiment.