EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD trades near 1.1680, recovering modestly on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar.
- Fed Commentary: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid signaled a pause on rate cuts, stressing the importance of keeping policy restrictive to bring inflation lower.
- ECB Policy: A Reuters poll showed most economists expect the ECB to hold rates steady through year-end, reinforcing stability in monetary expectations.
- ECB’s Cipollone: ECB’s Piero Cipollone noted inflation risks are balanced, with current rates considered well-positioned to maintain price stability.
- Upcoming Speeches: Traders await ECB speeches later today, including Cipollone and José Luis Escrivá, for additional policy clarity.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The EUR/USD is stabilizing as Dollar weakness offsets cautious Fed commentary, while the ECB signals policy steadiness. Market direction now hinges on further central bank communications.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD steadies near 1.3350 in Friday’s European session, pausing after two days of declines.
- BoE Guidance: Governor Andrew Bailey signaled more easing remains possible, though timing and scale depend on inflation trends. He acknowledged labor market softening and consumer caution.
- Political Uncertainty: UK politics added pressure as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham proposed £40B in borrowing and re-nationalization of services, moves that could unsettle gilt markets amid already weak bond demand.
- Labor Data: US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218K, the lowest since July, surprising markets that expected an increase, thereby supporting USD strength.
- Fed Commentary: Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee downplayed further policy easing, citing sticky inflation moving in the wrong direction.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is consolidating as BoE dovishness and UK political noise cap upside, while a resilient US labor market and cautious Fed tone provide USD support.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold consolidates below $3,750 in the European session, holding above the prior day’s swing low, signaling cautious range-bound trading.
- US GDP: Q2 US GDP Annualized surprised to the upside at 3.8%, above both estimates and prior projections of 3.3%, underscoring strong economic momentum.
- Rate Expectations: Markets now price 87.7% odds of a 25 bps cut in October, slightly down from earlier 90%+, reflecting shifting sentiment on Fed policy.
- Geopolitical Risk: Ukraine’s Zelensky warned of escalating Russian aggression, as Moscow ramps up drone production and intensifies aerial strikes, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
- Key Data: Traders await the UoM Consumer Sentiment final print and remarks from Fed officials Barkin and Bowman, both of which could influence near-term USD and gold volatility.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold remains in sideways consolidation as stronger US growth and reduced rate-cut bets temper upside, while geopolitical risks and upcoming Fed commentary could provide renewed support.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude eased slightly to $65.00 per barrel in early European trading on Friday, down marginally from Thursday’s close, reflecting subdued momentum.
- US Poltics: President Trump escalated rhetoric against Russia, urging NATO to shoot down intruding Russian aircraft, introducing fresh geopolitical tensions that could indirectly affect oil markets.
- Russian Response: The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to continue its Ukraine offensive, a stance that prolongs geopolitical instability and keeps energy markets sensitive to supply disruption risks.
- Middle East: Tensions spread as Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone strike on Israel’s Eilat, while Trump promised Arab leaders he would block annexation plans in the West Bank, highlighting the fragile Middle East risk premium for oil.
- Data Watch: Traders are also watching the US PCE Price Index release, a key inflation measure that could influence Fed policy expectations, indirectly impacting oil via USD strength or weakness.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
|
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Crude oil trades with slight downside bias, but geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East maintain a floor under prices, with US inflation data likely steering near-term direction.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX is stable near 23,600 points on Friday after a week of muted moves, signaling investor caution and range-bound sentiment.
- US Trade: President Trump announced sweeping tariffs—25% on heavy trucks, 50% on cabinets/vanities, and 100% on imported branded pharmaceuticals—fueling fears of trade tensions that could weigh on German exporters.
- EU Trade: EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic noted early but promising progress in trade talks with Malaysia and Thailand, reflecting Europe’s efforts to diversify partnerships amid global trade uncertainty.
- Housing Data: US existing home sales rose to 4.00M vs 3.96M expected, with prices up 2% y/y, suggesting resilience in the housing sector that may support broader US consumer confidence.
- Fiscal Concerns: The risk of a US government shutdown looms, with the White House warning of potential sharp workforce cuts, adding another layer of global market uncertainty.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX holds steady, but US tariff escalations and looming fiscal risks could cloud sentiment, while EU trade diversification and resilient US housing data provide partial offsets.