EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: The EUR/USD pair continues its upward momentum, marking a fifth consecutive daily gain and reaching a fresh weekly high near 1.1670 on Tuesday. The move reflects broad-based US Dollar softness and renewed confidence in Eurozone stability.
- Political Tensions: The French Socialist Party is expected to decide by week’s end whether to challenge Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government if fiscal plans for 2026 fail to include higher taxes on the wealthy, according to Bloomberg. This introduces short-term political risk that could affect market sentiment toward the euro.
- Eurozone Credit: Bank lending in the euro area expanded by 2.9% YoY in September, showing steady support for businesses despite moderating economic activity. The credit impulse held at 0.3% of GDP, suggesting that lower policy rates are still transmitting effectively into the economy.
- ECB Outlook: Eurozone inflation came in at 2.2% in September, slightly above the ECB’s 2% target, supporting the view that the ECB will maintain its current policy stance through at least 2027. This stability underpins the euro’s medium-term appeal amid global monetary easing cycles.
- US-Japan: The US and Japan’s new framework agreement to secure critical mineral and rare earth supply chains underscores a strategic move away from China. While not directly euro-linked, the deal has broader implications for global trade dynamics that could influence risk appetite and USD performance.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising |  |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD remains firmly supported by solid credit growth and stable ECB policy expectations, though French political uncertainty could inject temporary volatility. The pair’s sustained climb toward 1.17 suggests bullish sentiment persists, contingent on upcoming US data and global risk trends.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: The GBP/USD pair strengthens toward 1.3345 in early European trading on Tuesday, supported by broad USD weakness and cautious optimism ahead of key UK economic events later this month. The pair continues to recover modestly from recent lows but remains range-bound.
- Fed Policy: Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George noted that, amid the US government data blackout, policymakers will rely on alternative economic indicators, which currently support their rationale for rate cuts. Her comments add to expectations of a softer US Dollar, indirectly benefiting the pound.
- BoE Policy: The Bank of England’s next rate decision is set for November 6, 2025, with markets split over the likelihood of a rate cut. Investors remain cautious as the central bank balances stubborn inflation against slowing growth and a fragile fiscal outlook.
- Fiscal Focus: The upcoming Autumn Budget on November 26 is expected to shape future monetary policy moves, as the BoE will likely evaluate its inflationary impact before making further adjustments. Fiscal clarity may prove pivotal for market direction in late Q4.
- Current Account: The UK’s current-account deficit expanded to £18.7 billion (2.6% of GDP) in late 2024, signaling persistent structural imbalances. Combined with flat growth forecasts and inflation still above target, the data underscores the BoE’s policy dilemma and could limit upside potential for the pound.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD maintains a cautious upward bias, supported by a softer USD and pre-policy positioning. However, domestic fiscal uncertainty and mixed economic signals may restrain momentum until after the BoE decision and Autumn Budget, keeping the pair consolidated near 1.33–1.34 in the near term.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to sustain early gains from the Asian session, dropping to a three-week low around $3,915. The persistent selling pressure signals waning investor demand despite mild intraday rebounds.
- Rate Cut: Expectations of further Fed rate cuts have kept the US Dollar subdued, offering limited support to the non-yielding metal. However, the recovery momentum remains muted as traders await confirmation from upcoming Fed decisions.
- Fed Policy: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut at Wednesday’s meeting and another in December, reinforcing the view of a dovish policy trajectory. This expectation underpins gold’s resilience despite broader weakness.
- Inflation Data: The latest US CPI data showed both headline and core inflation rising 3% YoY in September, consistent with the Fed’s gradual easing narrative. The steady inflation trend gives the Fed room to lower rates without reigniting price pressures.
- Trade Tensions: News of a US-China trade framework ahead of talks between Trump and Xi Jinping reduced global risk aversion, dampening safe-haven demand for gold. The easing tensions contributed to the metal’s continued downside pressure.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Falling | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Gold remains under pressure, trading near key support levels around $3,900, as risk appetite improves and Fed rate cuts are already priced in. Unless the Fed signals a more aggressive easing cycle, XAU/USD may continue to drift lower toward $3,880–$3,850 in the short term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slips in early European trading on Tuesday, dropping to $60.00 per barrel, extending losses from Monday’s close at $61.37. The decline reflects renewed market caution amid shifting supply expectations.
- OPEC+ Output: Reports suggest that OPEC+ may raise production by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. The potential supply boost has pressured oil prices lower, as traders weigh the impact on an already well-supplied market.
- US Sanctions: Conversely, US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producers, could limit global supply and offer some support to WTI prices. The sanctions stem from Moscow’s continued military escalation in Ukraine.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Tensions intensified after Putin’s announcement of a successful nuclear-powered missile test, prompting Trump’s warning about US nuclear submarines near Russia. The confrontation underscores potential geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets.
- API Inventory: Traders await the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly crude stock report later on Tuesday for direction. A surprise draw could provide short-term relief, while a build might deepen the bearish tone.
| SMA (20) | Falling | | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
|
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: Oil prices are under pressure due to prospects of higher OPEC+ output, while sanctions and geopolitical tensions inject volatility. In the near term, WTI could hover around the $59.50–$60.50 range, with inventory data likely setting the tone for the next move.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX continues to underperform compared to global peers, trading near 24,200 on Tuesday after a weaker open. Despite positive sentiment elsewhere, the German benchmark remains below its record highs, reflecting lingering economic caution.
- Business Climate: Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.4 in October from 87.7, exceeding forecasts. However, the Current Conditions component dropped to 85.3, its lowest since February, signaling that businesses still face structural headwinds despite a marginally brighter outlook.
- Consumer Confidence: The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator slipped to -24.1 ahead of November, missing expectations of -22.0. Persistent inflationary pressures and weak wage growth continue to undermine household sentiment and spending power.
- Corporate Earnings: Investors are digesting results from Symrise and Deutsche Börse, alongside fresh data and outlooks from Nordex, Hypoport, and Süss MicroTec. These reports provide key insights into sector resilience amid a tepid economic backdrop.
- Key Data: Markets are turning their attention to German inflation data for October and Eurozone Q3 GDP figures set for release on Thursday, both of which will be critical for shaping expectations around ECB policy and the DAX’s short-term direction.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: The DAX remains range-bound below record highs, weighed by soft consumer sentiment and mixed business confidence. Upcoming inflation and GDP data could determine whether the index finds fresh momentum or continues to consolidate near current levels.