EURUSD
- EUR/USD Price: EUR/USD extends gains for a second day, trading near 1.1720 in Monday’s European session, supported by a weaker dollar tone.
- ECB Outlook: The ECB is seen nearing the end of its easing cycle, having held rates steady for the second month in September. Growth remains uneven, with services improving but manufacturing still under pressure.
- Inflation Focus: Markets are watching the flash HICP inflation print for September, expected to rise to 2.3% y/y (from 2.0%) due to energy base effects. Core inflation is also expected to edge up to 2.4% y/y, reinforcing ECB caution.
- Tariff Uncertainty: Despite limited exposure, EUR 430m in heavy trucks and EUR 5bn in furniture exports, the recent US tariff measures highlight ongoing trade risks that could weigh on eurozone sentiment.
- Traders will track multiple Fed officials’ speeches later today, including Waller, Hammack, Musalem, Williams, and Bostic, for clues on US policy direction and dollar momentum.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising |  |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: EUR/USD is climbing as markets eye eurozone inflation data and ECB policy signals, but US tariffs and Fed commentary could inject volatility into the pair’s near-term path.
GBPUSD
- GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD is trading near 1.3415 in early European hours on Monday, edging higher after two sessions of losses.
- BoE Outlook: The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 4.0% through year-end, with persistent UK inflation keeping policymakers cautious against early easing, offering support to sterling.
- US Inflation Data: The US PCE Price Index rose 2.7% y/y in August, in line with forecasts, slightly above July’s 2.6%. The steady inflation print reinforces expectations for the Fed to remain cautious on rate policy.
- Tariff Overhang: Trade tensions remain in focus as Trump imposed 100% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, along with steep tariffs on heavy trucks, cabinets, and furniture, underscoring risks to global trade dynamics.
- Fed Policy: Powell reiterated the Fed’s “challenging situation”—balancing inflation control against labor market risks. His balanced stance leaves markets weighing the timing of future US rate cuts.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Rising | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Falling |  |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: GBP/USD is modestly supported by BoE’s steady stance and a softer dollar, but tariff headlines and Fed caution may cap upside momentum in the near term.
XAUUSD
- XAU/USD Price: Gold extends its rally, hitting fresh record highs above $3,800 in early European trading on Monday, as safe-haven demand strengthens.
- Political Risk: Focus turns to Washington as Trump meets congressional leaders today ahead of a looming government shutdown deadline on Wednesday, adding to market uncertainty.
- Trade Policy: The White House confirmed pharma tariffs exclude countries with trade deals, while considering new tariffs on foreign electronics based on chip content, which could intensify trade tensions.
- Fed Commentary: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman turned dovish, stressing the need to act “decisively and proactively to protect jobs,” signaling support for imminent easing.
- Market Expectations: Futures now price in ~88% odds of an October rate cut and 65% odds of another in December, per CME FedWatch, bolstering gold’s upside momentum.
| SMA (20) | Rising | | |
| RSI (14) | Rising | | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Rising | | |
Closing statement: Gold’s strength is underpinned by dovish Fed signals, rising political risks, and trade uncertainty, keeping the bias firmly bullish in the near term.
CRUDE OIL
- Crude Oil Price: WTI crude advances early Monday in Europe, trading near $65.00 per barrel, extending recent gains.
- OPEC+ Outlook: According to a Reuters report, OPEC+ may approve a 137,000 bpd production hike for November at its October 5 meeting, continuing its gradual rollback of supply cuts.
- Geopolitical Risk: Trump signaled he is open to supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine, a move that could escalate tensions with Russia and add uncertainty to energy markets.
- Middle East: Axios reported that the US and Israel are close to an agreement on Trump’s Gaza peace plan, which could ease conflict risks and support market stability.
- China Demand: China’s industrial profits surged 20% y/y in August, lifting year-to-date figures into positive territory, though state-owned firms remain in the red, offering a mixed demand outlook.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Rising | |
Closing statement: Oil prices are supported by stronger Chinese data and geopolitical tensions, though upside may be capped by OPEC+ supply hikes and potential progress on Middle East peace talks.
DAX
- DAX Price: The DAX opens the week with modest gains of 0.3%, trading near 23,820 points, extending last week’s sideways-to-positive momentum.
- Corporate News: Prosthetics maker Ottobock announced IPO plans, targeting a valuation between €4–4.2 billion, highlighting renewed strength in Germany’s equity capital market.
- Policy Commitments: Germany pledged a record €11.8 billion in international climate financing for 2024, underscoring its leadership role in global climate policy.
- US Data: Stronger-than-expected US data late Friday, with the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 forecast upgraded to 3.9% and Michigan consumer confidence revised higher, supported global risk sentiment.
- China Trade: China’s Commerce Ministry announced it will implement export license controls for EVs starting January 2026, adding potential uncertainty for European automakers reliant on Chinese supply chains.
| SMA (20) | Slightly Falling | |
| RSI (14) | Slightly Rising | |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | Slightly Falling | |
Closing statement: The DAX starts the week on a positive note, supported by domestic IPO activity and strong US data, though China’s trade policy shift on EVs may weigh on Germany’s auto-heavy index longer term.