Daily Analysis 30/09/2025

• GBP/USD Price: GBP/USD advances toward 1.3440 in European trading on Tuesday, benefiting from a weaker US Dollar.
• BoE Policy: UK traders now expect the Bank of England to cut rates in November, as inflation remains sticky but broader economic conditions suggest easing will soon be necessary.
• BoE's Greene: Last week, BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Megan Greene warned of inflation risks and expressed confidence that the economy will rebound.
• BoE's Dhingra: On the contrary, BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra wrote in a column published by The Times on Friday that inflation risks will fade and there is need for quick interest rate cuts to support deteriorating labor market conditions.
• Dollar Weakness: Broader US Dollar softness underpins Cable’s upward momentum, as markets await confirmation from key data before the Fed’s next move.

Closing statement: GBP/USD is pushing higher near 1.3440, driven by BoE rate-cut expectations and USD weakness. The balance of MPC views and the upcoming JOLTS report will be pivotal for the next directional move.

• XAU/USD Price: Gold is trading north of $3,870/oz, holding near all-time highs as safe-haven demand strengthens.
• Shutdown Risk: The BHH Marketview report notes that a US government shutdown could push the Fed toward a dovish stance if prolonged. Short disruptions would likely be ignored, but an extended shutdown heightens growth risks and boosts the case for easing.
• Tariff Threats: President Trump proposed a 100% tariff on all foreign-made movies, expanding last week’s tariff agenda. Markets view this as an additional layer of trade-policy uncertainty, indirectly supporting gold’s appeal.
• Fed Commentary: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized that policy must stay restrictive amid lingering inflation in services, tempering dovish expectations despite balanced labor-market signals.
• Data Focus: Attention now shifts to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, with labor-market trends seen as crucial for Fed policy direction and gold’s next leg.

Closing statement: XAU/USD remains near record highs above $3,870, supported by shutdown risks, trade-policy uncertainty, and rate-cut bets. The upcoming NFP data will be key in shaping whether gold sustains its momentum or faces a correction.

• Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $63.00/bbl, extending Monday’s sharp losses. The decline reflects supply-side concerns and fresh geopolitical developments.
• OPEC+ Supply: Reports suggest OPEC+ will confirm a production hike of at least 137,000 bpd at its upcoming weekend meeting, reinforcing expectations of additional supply in November. This outlook is pressuring prices lower.
• Kurdistan Exports: Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed exports for the first time in 2.5 years, initially adding 180,000–190,000 bpd to Turkey’s Ceyhan port. The restart further weighs on supply-demand balance, contributing to downside pressure.
• Geopolitical Developments: At the White House, President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu backed a 20-point peace plan for Gaza. While signaling diplomatic momentum, the exclusion of Hamas and political challenges limit near-term impact on oil flows.
• China Data: China’s manufacturing PMIs beat expectations, with NBS PMI improving to 49.8 and private PMI rising to 51.2. While supportive for demand sentiment, positive data has not offset prevailing supply concerns.

Closing statement: Crude oil remains under downward pressure near $63/bbl, with rising supply from OPEC+ and Kurdistan exports overshadowing China’s stronger PMI readings. Near-term direction hinges on OPEC+’s weekend decision and evolving Middle East stability.

• DAX Price: The DAX trades slightly higher (+0.1%) near 23,760 points on Tuesday, reflecting a subdued start to the week with little directional momentum.
• Retail Sales: German retail sales rose 1.8% YoY in August, easing from July’s 2.9%. While still positive, the slowdown highlights moderating consumer demand despite resilience.
• Import Prices: The import price index fell -0.5% m/m in August, weaker than expectations (-0.2%). A 5% decline in energy prices drove the drop, easing cost pressures but reflecting ongoing weakness in energy demand.
• Corporate News: Continental CEO Setzer signaled confidence that the group could remain in the DAX as a pure tire manufacturer, highlighting strong performance in its core tire business despite restructuring.
• EU Policy: The EU’s €234B European Competitiveness Fund faces political friction. Wealthier members oppose geographical allocation, pushing instead for a merit-based distribution, underscoring tensions in EU industrial policy negotiations.

Closing statement: The DAX remains stable near 23,760, with mixed domestic data (retail resilience vs. weaker import prices) and corporate restructuring in focus. Broader direction will depend on EU policy negotiations and upcoming macro data.